Weekly Note Preview: Five Macro Themes Set To Emerge; The Role Cryptos Are Set To Play; A Look At Key Macro Indicators; Exponential Upside In A Small-Cap Financial Name; A Leveraged Means of Investing in Bitcoin
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. In this weekend's 172nd Edition of Zenolytics Turning Points, we discuss the following the topics: Five themes set to emerge in the economy and markets over the next 6-12 months What role cryptocurrencies are set to play as both an investment and an indicator of liquidity moving forward A look at what key macro indicators are telling us after this week's breakout across market averages Why there remains exponential upside in a small-cap financial name we are holding that was up 50% this week A study of a leveraged means of investing in Bitcoin To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in, the transmission thereof to the user. With respect to information regarding financial performance, nothing on this website should be interpreted as a statement or implication that past results are an indication of future...
Weekly Note Preview: 8 Popular Perceptions Currently Being Regarded As Fact That Are Set To Be Challenged In The Weeks and Months Ahead
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. A preview of this weekend's 15 page note follows: A number of thoughts currently being regarded as fact by investors are set to be tested by the market in the weeks and months ahead: 1. This is a bull market 2. QE works 3. Technology is a safe haven in a virus economy 4. Rotation to real economy names is just beginning 5. Downside in the market is limited 6. A year end rally must occur 7. Virus cases do not matter 8. Political division of historic proportions is manageable These are all psychological foundations of the current move up in the markets. This foundation of popular thought serves as a means of seemingly mitigating risk. However, as popular perception comes to be regarded as absolute fact, the very stability of the foundation the market is built on begins to slowly crumble, until risk shows up, often times suddenly and with a significant degree of violence. The potential for a turn down at any point from here into the end of the year can be especially violent because so few are prepared for it. The idea of a significant year end decline is such a foreboding topic that most on Wall Street will not even consider it. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock...
Weekly Note Preview: What The Dow of 1938 Is Telling Us About 2020; What the Nasdaq of 1999 Is Telling Us About 2020; Two New Developments In The Market; New Positions Being Taken
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. In this weekend's 15 page note we discuss: What the Dow of 1938 is telling us about the market in 2020 What the Nasdaq in 1999 is telling us about the market in 2020 Two new developments that could serve as a market catalyst The significance of bond yields moving up in recent weeks while equities consolidate An old economy sector that is signaling economic strength ahead A review of the Nasdaq, S&P and SOX New positions being taken for what lies ahead into and after the election To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in, the transmission thereof to the user. With respect to information regarding financial performance, nothing on this website should be interpreted as a statement or implication that past results are an indication of future...
Weekly Note Preview: The Shifting Liquidity Foundation of The Markets; Early Risk On, Risk Off Warnings; Gold and Silver; The Real Technical Signal In The Nasdaq and S&P
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. In this weekend's 13 page note we discuss: The shifting liquidity foundation of the markets The potential for early "risk on," "risk off" warnings from the currency markets Gold and silver The real technical signal that the Nasdaq and S&P are sending after this week MARKET UPDATE Let's begin with what is the most important underlying movement in the markets over the past month. The liquidity foundation of the market has shifted from the post virus crash, QE induced framework to something much different. Typically, when the liquidity foundation of the market shifts, as it has over the past several weeks, risk becomes an issue. However much the market chooses to ignore the risk determines the severity of the downturn when the risk is recognized by the markets. In other words, the longer the markets delay recognizing risk, the more potential for a significantly negative outcome over a short period of time. Of course, it goes without saying that we are in a political/macro environment that is unlike anything witnessed in quite sometime. In a little more than two weeks one of the most anticipated elections will arrive on the scene while investors who are seemingly concerned about potential instability as a result of any myriad of unpredictable election outcomes have decided to take the road most traveled by declaring their complete faith in the Fed, with any potential weakness in equities being nothing more than a blip on the radar before they are rescued, being made whole once again. When one takes into account the liquidity foundation of the markets; the pervasive use of leverage by investors; the exposure levels of all classes of investors; and the emerging risks chasing the market from behind, then we are left with an environment that can get slippery quickly. This is no longer the market of Q2 and most of Q3 when you could be confident that downside slippage would be negligible, making most any dip a buying opportunity, with the ability to leverage significantly. That's what you get when the liquidity foundation is intact, while investors have yet to fully embrace the bullish argument, remaining cognizant of risk that is in the rear view mirror, which naturally creates the necessary wall of worry for the markets to climb. As it stands presently, the majority of investors who are significantly exposed to equities are underestimating their risks, while blindly putting faith in a Federal Reserve that has made it clear that the next phase of...
Weekly Note Preview: The Ramifications of a Flat Fed Balance Sheet; Indications of Liquidity Drying Up; Analysis of Potential For Fiscal Stimulus; Targets For Nasdaq In October
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. The excerpt from last weekend's note is available here. In this weekend's 11 page note we discuss: The ramifications of a flattening Fed balance sheet at this stage of the recovery Indications that liquidity is drying up Analysis of the potential for fiscal stimulus to be passed and when it might pass The likely reaction to a fiscal stimulus package passing in the near-term The earnings season ahead Continued analysis of the shifting landscape beneath the market Targets for the Nasdaq in October MARKET UPDATE The bullish argument as we move into Q4 of a year many are looking forward to putting behind them is largely founded on factors that are now largely accepted as fact. The very act of investors accepting these arguments as being fact equates to capital being allocated in a direction that seeks to take advantage as the perceived outcome evolves through price. Naturally, that capital becomes vulnerable to sudden shocks that challenge the consensus understanding of the time. In order for bullish positioning to continue experiencing an upside push, investors are now relying on three catalysts to come together: 1. Fiscal stimulus 2. Continued momentum in corporate earnings 3. Continued momentum on the macro economic front At the same time, the liquidity foundation of the markets is not nearly as robust as most investors assume. Since June, the Fed has refused to grow their balance sheet, essentially cutting off liquidity, relying on momentum from that initial injection to prevent a full blown, long-term economic crisis. In this weekend's 11 page note we discuss: To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors...
Weekly Note Preview: The Rapidly Shifting Sentiment Picture; Massive Changes In The Foundation Underlying The Market Since March Lows; Market Scenarios Surrounding Stimulus; The Next Big Move In The Markets
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. The excerpt from last weekend's note is available here. In this weekend's 18 page note we discuss: The rapidly shifting sentiment picture Numerous charts detailing the massive change in the foundation underlying the market since the March lows The various market scenarios surrounding a stimulus bill passing vs. not passing in the week ahead In what direction the next significant, sustained move in the market could take place given the evolving data To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in, the transmission thereof to the user. With respect to information regarding financial performance, nothing on this website should be interpreted as a statement or implication that past results are an indication of future...
Weekly Note Preview: How The Decline To Begin September Was A Tell; The Role of Seasonality This Election Year; Important Names That Have Gone From Accumulation To Distribution
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. The excerpt from last weekend's note is available here. In this weekend's 13 page note we discuss: How the decline to begin September was a "tell" and what that tell entails. The role of seasonality this election year. Important names that have gone from being under accumulation to being under distribution. A technical review of the Nasdaq and the S&P along with downside targets. MARKET UPDATE At this very point in time, the S&P should have been at 3600-3700. The rally in technology should have been gaining momentum virtually unabated. Lagging sectors should have been in the midst of a recovery to demonstrate, at a minimum, some semblance of a respectable recovery since the March lows. That was the road map for this time period created when the market bottomed in March, without much in the way of any indications that this road map would be compromised in any manner through the end of August. What we have experienced in September, however, has been a complete annihilation of that road map. The market has been telling us for months now that the bullish road map was both robust and significant in its ability to outperform. The market is now telling us the exact opposite. The bullish road map is now null and void. Recognition of this fact will be a key driver of outperformance for the next several weeks, at a minimum, if not for the remainder of the 2020. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital...
Tuesday’s Note Preview: The View and Position To Take After The Recent Market Drop
What follows is an excerpt from Tuesday's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. The excerpt from this weekend's note is available here. When everyone is intimated by the promise of future chaos, it is rare for the markets to fail to take advantage through some form of deception, feeding on those very fears. We now know that the market won't be feeding on those fears by moving virtually straight up through the elections, causing investors to feel like a drop is imminent at any moment. We already had the drop. That thesis is dead. Leaving us to determine what is the path of maximum confusion from this point forward? Is the market simply kind enough to award the stampeding bulls with the steepest drop off an all-time in history to simply move back up to new highs through the event that everyone fears? The fact that the Nasdaq dropped by as much as it did when it did means that the market is acknowledging two things: 1. We are in a highly adverse seasonal period 2. We have one of the scarier events in recent memory a short time away This acknowledgment by the market is an indication that both adverse seasonals and difficulty around the elections are now in play. In other words, the market is going to do exactly what one would expect during the September/October period according to history, especially when a nearly impossible political event to handicap correctly lies dead ahead. Volatility is set to increase. The volatility will feed into the fears surrounding both the seasonal period and the election. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe...
Weekly Note Preview: Unexpected, Emerging Technical Signals; There Are No Do-Overs In The Market From This Point Forward
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. The excerpt from last weekend's note is available here. In this weekend's 9 page note we discuss a significant change in our outlook for the market during the remainder of 2020, along with how to capitalize on the unexpected nature of the moves to come. There are several technical signals having taken place over the past couple of weeks that are of equal importance to those seen at the March lows. This is a point in time where investors will be well served to make the right decisions, as there will be no do-overs. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in, the transmission thereof to the user. With respect to information regarding financial performance, nothing on this website should be interpreted as a statement or implication that past results are an indication of future...
Weekly Note Preview: The Late 90s Roadmap; Nasdaq Correction; A Big Shift In Risk/Reward; Sentiment; A New Leveraged ETF; Portfolio Changes
What follows are the topics covered in this weekend's note to subscribers. To become a client of Zenolytics Turning Points or to learn more click here. The excerpt from last weekend's note is available here. In this weekend's 11 page note we discuss: How the late 90s roadmap applies to the market of 2020 What to expect from the Nasdaq after this correction How risk/reward shifted this past week in a big way Nasdaq support/resistance levels Gauging sentiment via fund flows A new leveraged ETF for aggressive investors Portfolio changes after this week's correction MARKET UPDATE The market remains on an accelerated schedule. In fact, it's not just accelerated in any normal sense of the word, the market is moving at warp speed in order to arrive at whatever destination it has in mind during 2020. This is important information in and of itself. The fact that the market is choosing to move at what is an unprecedented pace in price. Without getting too far ahead of myself, typically significantly accelerated moves well into a secular bull market are associated with a top of some significance being in the works at some point in the distant future. The problem for investors is its impossible to know if that distant future is 3 months, 9 months or 18 months from now. It is also difficult to ascertain the role of liquidity and the unprecedented role of central banks in the markets to determine whether the old rules of naturally accelerating trends leading to blowoff tops down the road applies here. The last time we faced an accelerated market on par with what we are witnessing presently was the late 90s. In fact, the Nasdaq post 1998 LTCM crisis moved at a faster pace than what we have seen from the Nasdaq in 2020. The key difference between 1998-2000 and 2020 is that the Fed was on a completely different mission. After adding liquidity to avert a crisis in 1998, the Fed started draining liquidity by steadily increasing the Fed Funds rate during 1999 and 2000. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital...