Intra-Week Note Preview: A Discussion On The Importance Of What Occurred Today In The Markets, Along With How To Approach Equity Allocations From This Point Forward
In today's 372nd edition of Turning Points we have a an 8 page note discussing the importance of what occurred today in the markets, along with how to approach equity allocations from this point forward. What follows is a brief preview from today's note: Today was an important day for a number of reasons as I will get to in the charts to come. Our original intention in taking on long exposure last week was to gain a leg up on the market by buying seemingly risky names when uncertainty was at its greatest. This allows us to get ahead of the market by having a profit cushion from which we can either simply take the profits off the table or add positions to the portfolio while not being in a vulnerable position should the market reverse. Coming into this week, I had Tuesday and Wednesday achieving the bulk of the gains, with the intention of taking profits on Wednesday, taking a wait and see approach to the markets from there. However, today's price action is the first day since the August 18th bottom that the market is actually telling us, with some certainty, that the bottom in mid-August could be the low for the remainder of the year. To view the entirety of today's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor...
They Are All So Quick To Abandon Ship July 2023 Edition
In November of 2022 as investors were fortifying their concrete bunkers while buying 10 gallon buckets of powdered creamy chicken flavored rice awaiting the end of the world, I put out a note titled They Are All So Quick To Abandon Ship. At the time, this was a plea to investors to screw their heads back on straight, not falling victim to the bearish psychosis that had become endemic. Now here we are some 600 SPX points higher, and while investor sentiment is no longer suicidal, they are still So Quick To Abandon Ship. In this weekend's 361st edition of Zenolytics Turning Points, I outlined the case for taking our exposure back up to near 100% invested during the week ahead, after averaging this past week at roughly 50% invested, our lowest exposure in some weeks. Along with analysis of two new positions and the case for adding to our largest position, the following excerpt from this weekend's note cannot emphasized enough: Will a market that went so out of its way to deceive everyone into year end 2022 all the way through part of the first half of this year, suddenly turn into a charity case, rendering all of its efforts null and void? When looking back at 2022 – early 2023 some years from now, we will confidently be able to say that it was one of the most deceptive market moves you will find during a secular bull market. Against this frame of reference, knowing what we know about the 100 year history of secular bull markets as I've presented in my recent notes, while also understanding that the degree of effort the market puts into a deceptive result is directly proportional to the degree of output yielded as a result of the deceptive effort, a significant pullback for the rest of 2023 becomes a very low probability event. It's not a matter of analyzing a market based on recent performance, then coming to the conclusion that being the market has moved up so far in so short a period a pullback must be due. Rather, it is a matter of analyzing a market based on context and effort. The effort expended to gather the hearts and minds of investors into expecting a certain outcome, tells you more about the markets future intentions than most anything else. Additionally, understanding the context of where the market is in its largest cycle, tells you the timing of the move. 2022 was such a monstrous anomaly that every investor should do themselves the favor of understanding that the swing of the pendulum forward will be of equal if not...
Weekly Note Preview: A Discussion Of Exactly Where We Are In the Current Secular Bull Market Cycle And What It Means For Investors During The Months Ahead
In this weekend's 359th edition of Turning Points we have a an 11 page note discussing exactly where we are in the current long-term secular bull market cycle, how previous secular bull and bear markets tell us what to expect with the current run, and how to best invest for what is ahead. What follows is a brief preview from this weekend's note: Scenario 2 is coming to pass. This means that given the fact that an anomalous decline occurred in 2022 during a liquidity filled monetary environment as we approach the middle stages of a secular bull market, the makeup trade that occurs is going to be formidable, to say the least. Everything is at the markets back from here: We have the middle stage (acceleration stage) of a secular bull. We have a deceptive enough decline that nearly everyone got shaken out. We have rampant liquidity remaining in the economic system looking for a home. We have all-time highs in the major indices that are yet to be exceeded, acting as both a a point of attraction and upside catapult once they are exceeded. We have psychology that has completely shifted from where it was 18 months ago at the market peak. We have a Fed with an ever diminishing role in the market. We have an anomalous decline in 2022 that the markets will violently makeup for. We have a theme in AI that will function as the fundamental narrative to drive prices. The fact that we have the AI revolution occurring as we enter the middle stages of the secular bull market also lines up well with the psychology as we entered the middle stages of the 1982-2000 secular bull market, with the internet boom occurring during the middle to late stages. Whether technological revolutions occurring as price begins to truly heat up is a symptom of speculation or a feature of the cycle at work is up for debate. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered...
New Edition of Zenolytics Turning Points Is Out: A Discussion Of Why Today’s Move In the Nasdaq Is Not One To Be Ignored, Along With Analysis of Additions To Positions & A New Position To Be Taken At The Open Tomorrow
In this 347th edition of Turning Points a discussion of why today's move in the Nasdaq is not one to be ignored, along with analysis of additions to positions taken during the trading day and a new position to be taken at the open tomorrow. It's important to listen to what the market is saying here while ignoring every other piece of seemingly critical information. The critical pieces of information are primarily in the form of fundamental news flow that mostly paints a picture of severe doom and gloom in one form or another. Whether geopolitics based, recession based, inflation based or otherwise, there is no shortage of hooks to hang your hat on if you choose to be bearish right now. However, what the market has been telling us for most of 2023 is in stark contrast to all the bearish narratives that exist. The confusion lies in the fact that, at least for now, the heavy lifting for the market has mostly been done by a select few mega-cap tech stocks. This may be in the process of changing with today's breakout for the Nasdaq. To view the entirety of this note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital...
345th Edition Of Turning Points Preview: Portfolio Restructuring Time
In this 345th edition of Turning Points a review of why we went to 100% cash today along with profiling a new position being opened tomorrow morning. We were awarded a pretty good spot today to take some profits, which I decided was much too attractive an opportunity to pass up. To be clear, the current call is nothing like the early February call to not only exit all of our longs but get short over the next 1-2 months. Technically, other than the fact I was confident that the markets would retrace the gap up today, nothing really stood out. The SPX is up 0.03% for the week thus far. Another sideways affair, in other words. I can see some market shenanigans taking place over the next several trading days. I can also see a scenario where the market does breakout, but then retraces the gains. In either case, in 2023 to date, protecting profits at every turn has been the correct decision. I don't see this time as being different. The benefit that we have is the ability to get into a new group of risk/reward opportunities that will provide an improved risk profile while allowing us to participate in further upside, if the market chooses to continue its move up. Resetting a portfolio (moving to a large or 100% cash position) for short to intermediate term traders is a highly underrated tactic. First, it allows a trader to view the market without bias, enhancing one's ability to make optimal decisions at critical junctures. Second, it forces one to seek new opportunities that often have better risk profiles than names that have run 30, 50 or 100 percent. Third, it allows for agility in a portfolio, while creating the habit of being flexible in one's views. The biggest losses come after a good run, while getting attached to specific thesis or a group of positions. Where we are currently in the market is in a 3-5 day period where conditions can get volatile in both directions. Rather than sitting around, hoping for the best, the decision was made today to reset and reallocate....small at first. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website...
Weekly Note Preview: The Classic Wall Of Worry That Has Developed; Significant Breakouts Taking Place In Mega-Cap Tech After Earnings; A New Crypto Related Position Added To The Portfolio
In this weekend's 344th edition of Turning Points we have a 12 page note detailing the classic wall of worry that is allowing this market to remain buoyant in the face of countless concerns; we discuss the numerous breakouts above key resistance that have taken place in mega-cap tech following Q1 earnings; highlighting the strongest sectors in the market along with the best way to participate; adding a new crypto related position to the portfolios that is on the verge of a significant breakout. The abundance of reasons to be bearish is one of the key factors that is keeping the markets so well intact, allowing for opportunities on the long side to take place. These bearish factors are also what is creating the tailwind in precious metals and crypto during 2023 as investors are seeking any kind of safety net to cushion the fall in case of the above described Armageddon scenario. While we dance around the chemical fire that has become the current economy, megacap tech companies are becoming more powerful than world governments as they continue to print money unabated. As discussed in recent editions of Turning Points, AAPL's price action was telling us that an earnings disappointment was a low probability scenario. We see now why AAPL was resting above resistance going into earning s with very little overall downside volatility. Earnings were better than expected, creating a nice move above resistance targeting new all-time highs over the intermediate term. Everything about the earnings move was perfect. From the way it moved above resistance, finally confirming that the move above trajectory was real. All the way to to volume, which wasn't overly euphoric or “blowoffish” in nature. AAPL's price action post earnings isn't delivering an overly- bullish message at all. What it is delivering is a message that downside is relatively non-existent unless some sort of black swan appears. In the current market structure, AAPL will slowly grind up providing resilience for the overall tech market. Here we have MSFT in what could be a preview of what AAPL will do a week after earnings. MSFT reported a week before AAPL. Since then it was simply held its gap and continued along on moderate volume, accelerating up and away from resistance that now becomes support. In last weekend's edition of Turning Points I discussed a 315-320 price target over the short-term for MSFT. It looks like we will get there this week. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions...
Weekly Note Preview: The importance of the signals presented this past week; What the 4300-4600 range could bring for the markets; Thoughts on when to turn bearish if appropriate; Adding to our largest current portfolio position.
In this weekend's 343rd edition of Turning Points we have a 12 page note detailing the importance of the signals presented this past week, what the 4300-4600 range could bring for the markets, thoughts on when to turn bearish if appropriate, as well as adding to our largest current portfolio position. What follows is an excerpt from this weekend's note. We haven't witnessed as signal rich a market as this past week's price action since the February high While the S&P 500 ended April with a modest gain of 1.47%, the numerous price signals on display strongly indicate that the first week or two of May should see some significant buying pressure as the remaining bearish arguments get systematically annihilated. In what has been largely an event driven price environment that may be finally normalizing to more independent price action, there remain a handful of events in the coming weeks that will more than likely blow up whatever bearish arguments remain over the short-term, while simultaneously launching the markets over 4200, creating a significant short covering event. In the week ahead we have: FOMC on Wednesday AAPL on Thursday Jobs report on Friday An absolutely huge week of data for both mega-cap tech and the economy as a whole right as the markets are breaching/approaching key technical levels that will force the hands of many. Already over the past week we have witnessed some key technical breaks taking place that are telling a story of real, sustainable strength. Given the volume coming with the moves, these are by no means inconsequential breakouts. First up, here is AAPL prior to its report this week. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use...
Weekly Note Preview: Bullish Setups Continue To Present Themselves; The Interesting Correlation Developing In The Bond Market; Two New Long Opportunities
In this weekend's 340th edition of Turning Points we have a 9 page note detailing the decision to further add to our long exposure with two new positions as bullish setups continue to present themselves. What follows is an excerpt from this weekend's note. When looking through the charts it becomes apparent that this market is, generally speaking, a genuine unmitigated mess. Every stock, sector and etf is going in its own direction, mostly either to the downside or sideways, without much in the way of volume, within an overall directionless pattern that doesn't seem to desire any sort of conclusion in the near-term. What is holding up the markets continues to be a handful of issues, mostly mega-cap tech, that are only growing in strength as the days and weeks wear on. It has been a fruitless endeavor for investors to attempt to guess when this phenomenon of extremely narrow leadership will end. By the looks of the charts of AAPL, MSFT, META, GOOG and NVDA, it seems that investors are rather optimistic about this coming earnings season. All of this in the face of continued doubt by a majority of investors as to the voracity of the current rally due to a host of factors, most pressingly the complete lack of participation of just about every stock but the elite generals, quickly followed by recession fears, stagflation fears, as well as fears of continued chaos in the banking sector. Price action in the Nasdaq, along with the key names that lead that index, are telling us that we are past the point of falling into the trap of doubting what is occurring on the basis of the numerous negative fundamental factors that exist. Put as simply as possible, price action among the narrow few that are leading the market higher is telling us, once again, that something is afoot that market participants have yet to realize. Just as the S&P topped in early February at 4200 without explanation, followed by the March banking crisis, factoring in negative developments a month prior that were yet to be seen, the Nasdaq is more than likely factoring in positive developments that are also yet to be observed. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information...
Intra-Week Market Update Preview: Going Over The Various Data Points Today That Suggest The Next Leg Down Of This Bear Move Has Arrived
After nailing the market reaction to Powell today, we discuss the ramifications of what occurred in today's market, including numerous macro indicators that are strongly suggesting the next leg down has arrived. We go over these macro indicators, as well as discussing the potential downside targets for the S&P in the weeks and months ahead. What follows is an excerpt from tonight's note. In the February 5th edition of Turning Points when I put out the call to take off all of our long exposure while taking on the first leg of our short positions, I presented numerous data points demonstrating the potential trouble that lie ahead for the markets. Today rivals early February in terms of the importance of what has occurred following the first day of Powell's testimony. And similar to early February, adding to our short exposure this week will more than likely be a decision with high potential for positive expected value in the weeks ahead. I'm not going to be focusing on the indices here tonight, instead choosing to focus on five macro indicators that strongly suggest that the markets started their second leg down from the early February top today. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes,...
Weekly Note Preview: Continued Signs Pointing To The Importance Of The Recent Top, What It Means For Investors and Detailing Two New Short Ideas
In this weekend's 329th edition of Turning Points we have an 18 page note going over the developing top from 4200 on the S&P along with the introduction of two new short positions to add to our Aggressive Bear Portfolio that capitalize on emerging bearish trends in the markets. What follows is an excerpt from this weekend's note. MARKET UPDATE This 329th Edition of Turning Points is going to be extensive. I have a lot of charts to share as there are significant shifts taking place in the markets that have some very real consequences for investors during the weeks and months ahead. I don't necessarily enjoy being an alarmist. Those of you who have been reading my work for a number of years know that this is the first time I have struck such a bearish chord in well over a decade. I'm a perennial bull. In 2011-2012, I was writing about how investors were significantly underestimating the upside in the markets, discussing a bullish super cycle (Google: Zeonolytics Supercycle) taking place during the decade ahead. I viewed every dip as a buy. I dismissed every bearish argument all the way up. My bullish persistence was primarily rooted in my technical work of the markets. During the entirety of the uptrend, including the 2020 pandemic crash, the 2018 taper tantrum and so on, there was nothing that concerned me technically beyond what I viewed as temporary interruptions in the uptrend that investors inherently overreact to each and every time. What I am seeing as we are still early in 2023 is different, however. In recent editions of TP, I have highlighted the fact that the market are undergoing distribution on a scale that we haven't seen for the entirety of the bull market, off the 2009 credit crisis lows. As I highlighted in the 328th Edition of TP from February 19th, the chart of the S&P 500 strongly suggests that the entirety of the consolidation from April 2022 until now is simply one giant distribution pattern prior to the next leg down. If this analysis turns out to be correct, then the next leg down will be the most substantial selling event of this bear market. You don't break a nearly year long distribution pattern gently. When it breaks, it is a violent, persistent and generally, ugly event. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for...