Weekly Note Preview: The Future Ramifications Of The Volatility Experienced This Past Week; Market Price Structure; What The Volatility Index Seems To Be Hinting; Significant Allocation Shifts
In this weekend's 468th edition of Turning Points we have a 15 page note discussing the ramifications for the weeks/months ahead of the significant volatility experienced this past week; market price structure; what the volatility index seems to be hinting; significant allocations shifts in Zenolytics Portfolio. What follow is a brief preview from this weekend's note: For all the chaos that was this past week, the SPX closed down 2 points, basically unchanged on the week. However, beneath the surface, the market is very clearly telling investors that we are entering a period of volatility that will be both violent and unpredictable. Whether this volatile period lasts weeks or months remains unclear. What is abundantly clear, however, is that the market is making every effort possible to shake loose as many participants as possible. Just looking at the fundamental picture, whether it is recessionary fears that have you lying curled up in the fetal position, or a tense election season directly ahead, there is no shortage of monsters in the closet, frightening investors out of the market. It doesn't end with an uncertain fundamental backdrop, however. The technical backdrop - in other words price action - has suddenly decided to match the uncertain fundamentals after an extended period of fairly serene trading. There is an abundant amount of information to be gathered during volatile periods in the market. During every large move there are intentions at work that can deliver valuable insight as to what lies ahead. As an example, this past week saw the market expend a significant degree of energy in shaking loose as many investors as possible prior to the SPX delivering its largest one day gain since November 2022 on Thursday. In the Monday, August 5th edition of Turning Points I discussed the market “forcing the issue” for the remainder of the week, following the surprise, out of the blue futures ramp directly following the regular session close. We saw a tremendous amount of force used from Thursday-Friday to basically recalibrate the markets off of an overly-bearish setup that had been weeks in the making. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 450+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or...
Weekly Note Preview: How The Events Of This Weekend Between Israel & Iran Shift The Scenarios For The Markets Over The Short/Intermediate Term, Along With Key Price Levels To Expect In A Best & Worst Case Scenario.
In this weekend's 433rd edition of Turning Points we have a 13 page note discussing how the events of this weekend between Israel and Iran shift the scenarios for the markets over the short to intermediate term, along with key price levels to expect in a best and worst case scenario. Additionally, significant shifts in the crypto market are discussed, along with how to best prepare for a scenario few expect to take place. What follow is a brief preview from this weekend's note: The conflict currently unfolding between Israel and Iran is a volatility enhancer. As I will detail in the pages to come, this is an important concept to understand as it will influence how price structure evolves from this point forward. Equally important to grasp is that conflicts of this nature are rarely, if ever, triggers for a broad trend reversal. Again, going back to one of my favorite market axioms, “they don't ring bells are market tops.” Those selling because they fear an expanding crisis in the Middle East are doing so due to the fact that this event is scary enough that they feel compelled to count their blessings, while heeding the sound of a loud bell triggering their decision to move into more conservative investment territory. Essentially, when surprise geopolitical events take place you have a chaotic loop of fear and volatility feeding into one another, given the unpredictability of the time ahead and the feverish efforts of investors attempting to price in a new variable. In my experience, trading through every conflict since the mid-90s, the primary trend prevails every single time. The only thing that changes is that volatility is enhanced. What this means for price structure is patterns that are nice and neat, responding to support areas, while behaving in a somewhat predictable manner, become chaotic and unruly. Basically, support areas are compromised. Daily bars expand significantly. And as a result, fear goes through the roof as investors fall into the trap of thinking a shift in trend has indeed taken place. The envelope for volatility expands drastically, which is something many investors are uncomfortable with, especially when they are being pelted with an absolute barrage of scary news from all fronts. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 430+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our...
Weekly Note Preview: The Importance Of The Technical Events That Took Place This Past Week; The Push/Pull Effect In Major Indices; The Role Of Small-Caps Moving Forward; Analysis Of 4 New Positions Being Initiated This Week
In this weekend's 420th edition of Turning Points we have a 16 page note discussing the importance of the technical events that took place this past week; The push/pull effect in major indices; The role of small-caps moving forward; Analysis of 4 new positions being initiated this week. What follow is a brief preview from this weekend's note: The NDX 18000 level has been a focal point of my analysis since mid-January as both a point of attraction for the markets and a potential resistance point that would dictate our next set of steps based on the reaction. In fact, the NDX 18000 level is only superseded in importance by the infamous key red trajectory on the SPX that plagued the market for nearly two years, resulting in breakdowns, excessive volatility and all types of market shenanigans that are thankfully behind us. The manner in which the NDX took out its key red trajectory on Friday is on par with the December 12th breakout in the SPX over its key red trajectory. Let's first look at the SPX from the December period in order to gain perspective of what can result following such an important technical event. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 400+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock...
Weekly Note Preview: The Confluence Of Factors Playing Into The Long-Term Secular Bull Cycle; The Best Sector To Take Advantage Of What Lies Ahead; What We Plan On Doing With Our NVDA Long Position; A New Position Being Initiated
In this weekend's 418th edition of Turning Points we have a 15 page note reviewing long-term expectations for the markets; The best sectors to take advantage of what lies ahead; A review of crypto, including the current state of alternative crypto investments; What we plan on doing with our NVDA long position; What to expect from the markets during the weeks ahead; A review of a new position being initiated on Monday. What follow is a brief preview from this weekend's note: We are in an unusual space in time given the convergence of a number of unprecedented technological, economic and geopolitical developments taking place simultaneously. This naturally creates the tendency towards caution as there are few corollaries to what 2024 and onward is in the process of becoming. The predominant sense of caution is further amplified by where it is we have come from the past several years. Whether the extreme volatility of the 2020 pandemic market or the recent 2022-2023 secular bull market consolidation that saw mega-cap tech stalwarts like META lose 80% of their value from peak to trough, investors have been conditioned to expect the worst and hope for the best. Let's consider for a moment where we are in time: - Geopolitical power structures shifting - USD reserve currency dominance being challenged - Inflationary pressures unpredictable - AI creating growth that is exceeding that of the dot com boom - AI creating economic, social and political ramifications that are both unpredictable and unprecedented - Crypto being an unregulated, highly speculative financial sector seemingly waiting in the wings for AI integration, while demonstrating continued resilience against regulatory authorities - Developed nation balance sheets being leveraged to the hilt, with massive amounts of liquidity remaining in the global economy - A two year consolidation in the US markets in 2022-2023 that created extreme volatility in key assets, further dissuading investor participation - A secular bull market that, as I have demonstrated in the recent past, is squarely mid-cycle in terms of overall age A literal powder keg of technological, economic, social, political and technical convergences. Bringing us to what is the most important chart in finance. This is a chart I have been sharing for nearly a decade now, as it continues to track expectations perfectly. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 400+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and...
Weekly Note Preview: The Evolution Of Perfect Price Structure In The Major Indices; Investor Embrace Of Pessimism At First Sign Of Trouble; Timing A Short-Term Peak; Catalysts In The Week Ahead; A New Aggressive Bull Position; Crypto Strategy
In this weekend's 409th edition of Turning Points we have an 11 page note discussing the continued perfect price structure taking place in the major indices; investors embracing pessimism at the first sign of danger; timing of a short-term peak; macro and micro catalysts in the week ahead; a new Aggressive Bull portfolio position; crypto strategy for the months ahead. What follows is a brief preview from this weekend's note: In the midst of perpetual doubt brought on by the grief suffered at the hands of sadistic market action from January 2022 all the way until October 2023, the markets have spontaneously put together one of the greatest rallies in history. Despite the markets vehemently expressing to investors that they have suddenly been injected with a sense of vitality and optimism, investors remain skeptical, unable to shake off the trauma suffered in years past. When looking at the 20 day moving average of the equity put/call ratio we see that despite a record setting rally, the appetite for puts at the first sign of distress remains unusually high. In terms of overall investor psychology, not only is it the case that optimism is yet to be found, but there is a distinct sense of dread pervading price action. Markets that have investors feeling especially comfortable do not experience anomalous pessimism spikes in the put/call ratio as we observed just a few weeks ago. In the face of what has become a perpetual cycle of pessimism, the price action continues to tell a different story than the bearishness investors seem to be overly anxious to embrace. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 400+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the...
Weekly Note Preview: Targets For The SPX During Earnings Season; A Reversal In Bond Weakness Forthcoming; A Glimmer Of Hope In Small-Caps; A New Name Added To Our Earnings Trade Portfolio
In this weekend's 407th edition of Turning Points we have a 15 page note discussing new highs in the SPX along with target levels to look for during earnings season; When recent weakness in bonds is set to reverse; A glimmer of hope emerging in small-caps; Adding a new name to our Earnings Trade Portfolio. What follows is a brief preview from this weekend's note: MARKET UPDATE The SPX closed at a record high this week, validating the technical data from early December showing that the momentum move over the key red trajectory was indeed a “real move” this time, as opposed to the countless whipsaws investors have experienced over the past couple years. A perfect 3 step process has taken place from the point of approaching resistance up to where we find ourselves today. The legitimacy of this move has been proven, with one single resistance area remaining until acceleration over 5000 takes place, which I expect to occur during Q2. 4900 is a resistance area that needs to watched closely from here. In fact, this is the first area since taking up our long exposure in early December where considering taking off some risk will be appropriate. As I have mentioned previously, this isn't 2022-2023, where it will serve investors well to move to cash positions or short periodically. That ship has definitely sailed. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 400+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC....
Weekly Note Preview: What Small-Cap Weakness Means For The Market; The Rotation To Large Cap Growth Is On; Q4 Earnings Setup; The Slow Rolling Nature Of The Market; A Crypto Supercycle
In this weekend's 406th edition of Turning Points we have a 16 page note discussing what small-cap weakness means for the market; Our recent rotation from small-cap to large cap growth; How the markets are setting up for Q4 earning season; The slow rolling nature of the market that will continue to keep investors off balance; A crypto supercycle. What follows is a brief preview from this weekend's note: BTC is the embodiment of the slow rolling nature of an asset class that has had a history of vertical ascents throwing investors off given the paradigm shift in price action. We have multiple consolidations during this uptrend that take months to digest. The natural investor reaction has been and continues to be: BTC must be at a top. We have a gradual ascent that refuses to go vertical. The natural investor reaction has been and continues to be: BTC must be at a top. We have sharp pullbacks every now and then as we had in recent days. The natural investor reaction has been and continues to be: BTC must be at a top. Let's assume for a second that I am right and this slow rolling price action continues for equities and crypto. What does this mean for the bull market in 2024 and beyond? A slow bull market, especially in the face of all the macro and geopolitical anxiety investors have for 2024, will continue to be greeted as alien. The news flow will continue to grow dramatically more dire, especially as we head into elections this year. At the same time, assuming the markets continue their slow pace forward, investor psychology won't shift because it can't. Why can't it? The markets aren't following the vertical ascent playbook so there must be something wrong will be the prevailing thought. Followed very closely by “the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate, and who knows how the US elections will turn out?” A majority of investors will remain in cash or get in cash at the first sign of trouble as a result. A majority of smart investors will see what the markets are up to, driving the markets persistently higher until after the elections when investors realize that none of the chaos they expected has come to pass. And even if some of it did, the markets didn't really care much, they just kept slow rolling their way forward. This is how early stage resumptions of secular bull markets transpire. Lack of care, followed by disbelief, followed by some interest and then eventually turning into fear of missing out. We are still in the lack of care stage, with...
Weekly Note Preview: Gaming The CPI
In this weekend's 375th edition of Turning Points we have an 11 page note focused primarily on gaming this week's CPI report as the markets remain around key levels. What follows is a brief preview from this weekend's note: There are a lot of ways to lose money in this market. In going through the charts this weekend, this single fact jumped out more than any other. Investors are increasingly concentrated in just a few names. They also tend to gravitate towards the best performing sectors, whether real estate related, energy or otherwise. This leaves an enormous number of names that are essentially left for dead, delivering glimmers of hope at random intervals, while persistently grinding towards below average return territory. 2023 has been a year where it has paid to do two things specifically: 1. Be extremely selective about which names and sectors in which you are invested. Being that losing money in this market is such a readily available feature, being diversified is only a ticket towards bringing one closer to performance mediocrity. 2. Maneuver allocations in short-term intervals so as to avoid seemingly random drawdowns like what the markets have faced since the July highs and what they faced previously, at the February peak to the March low. Normally, in a standard bull market, you want to ride out the peaks and valleys, as you do not want to be shaken out of your positions. Also, you want to be diversified as bull markets typically have a “rising tide lifts all boats” effect. 2023 is something different, however. As anomalous as this market has become, despite the fact that there is some certainty given the understanding of long-term bull market cycles, it wouldn't at all be surprising for this market to deliver downside that could be punishing in nature due to the overall slippery conditions we find ourselves facing. With that said, it remains extremely important to bear in mind that being selective about where we are invested and continuing to maneuver around potential trouble spots has and will continue to work, potentially insulating us from anomalous circumstances involving sudden downside in the markets during the time ahead. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website...
Weekly Note Preview: There Is Some Short-Term Uncertainty, However, Given How, When & Where The Markets Are Consolidating, The Next Steps Will Be Abundantly Clear In The Time To Come
In this weekend's 373rd edition of Turning Points we have a 13 page note discussing how short-term uncertainty is set to turn into absolute clarity for the remainder of 2023. What follows is a brief preview from this weekend's note: We find ourselves, once again, in one of those spots where our next steps will be abundantly clear due to the nature of how, when and where the markets are consolidating. However, until we observe how the current situation develops, jumping to premature conclusions about the future direction of the markets will be a sub-optimal use of capital, with what are likely disappointing results. The current market has the look and feel of one that would be content to chop around for the next week or two, at least. In that situation, we want to be buying the dips, in a handful of reliable squeeze candidates in order to play the upside. Over the intermediate term, past the middle of September into the beginning of Q4, the pressing desire of portfolio managers to make up for performance lag during 2023 to date will certainly be a catalyst for renewed upside momentum in the markets. What will also be a catalyst is the Fed pausing at the September meeting, which is currently looking like a high probability bet according to Fed Fund futures. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability...
Intra-Week Note Preview: A Discussion On The Importance Of What Occurred Today In The Markets, Along With How To Approach Equity Allocations From This Point Forward
In today's 372nd edition of Turning Points we have a an 8 page note discussing the importance of what occurred today in the markets, along with how to approach equity allocations from this point forward. What follows is a brief preview from today's note: Today was an important day for a number of reasons as I will get to in the charts to come. Our original intention in taking on long exposure last week was to gain a leg up on the market by buying seemingly risky names when uncertainty was at its greatest. This allows us to get ahead of the market by having a profit cushion from which we can either simply take the profits off the table or add positions to the portfolio while not being in a vulnerable position should the market reverse. Coming into this week, I had Tuesday and Wednesday achieving the bulk of the gains, with the intention of taking profits on Wednesday, taking a wait and see approach to the markets from there. However, today's price action is the first day since the August 18th bottom that the market is actually telling us, with some certainty, that the bottom in mid-August could be the low for the remainder of the year. To view the entirety of today's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor...