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Another Look At The Handy Zillow/Redfin Ratio

Jul11

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Another Look At The Handy Zillow/Redfin Ratio

Posted by admin on Jul 11, 2019

Another Look At The Handy Zillow/Redfin Ratio

It's going to be worth keeping an eye on secondary names in the Ibuying space given the momentum that is taking place in the sector, led by Zillow. Have discussed Zillow extensively here in 2019. Most recently in a note titled "Here Is The Bottomline With Zillow At This Point In Their Business Cycle." The basic premise of the piece was that the markets have gone from skepticism about Zillow fully transitioning their business model to Ibuying to complete acceptance and love for the move. With that said, all Rich Barton has to do to keep the train moving is to continue gaining revenue momentum through the acquisition of homes. At the same time, their former bread and butter (Premier Agent) ad based business has to somewhat support the endeavor. In other words, the markets won't like Premier Agent revenue falling off a cliff. This is phase 1 of the transition of Zillow. In the phases that are to come in the quarters and years ahead, Zillow's inventory of homes will reach such a critical mass that it won't allow management to simply boost the share price in the same way they are being allowed now. The massive inventory that is to come will eventually freak the market out to an extent, creating urgency for management to come up with a creative means of capitalizing on being one of the largest homeowners in the country. This is a when not if type of dilemma the company faces. Where Zillow is currently within its overall business cycle, however, is the sweet spot. Their inventory of homes isn't scary yet. Their revenue growth can increase at a nice clip given the early nature of the concept. Competition hasn't yet figured out how to compete effectively with the 800 pound gorilla in the space. All good for now. Bringing us to Redfin. Today RDFN announced a partnership with the largest Ibuyer - Opendoor, which is undoubtedly an urgent response by both companies to Zillow's increasing momentum. While RDFN has a lot of catching up to do to ever reach Zillow's dominance in the space, the primary question from an investor perspective should be whether RDFN has enough going for it to ride Zillow's wave higher over the intermediate to long-term? Today's move by RDFN partnering with Opendoor is an official embrace of...

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GRUB Is Set To Be THE Story Of The Second Half With A Price Target Of $150

Jul09

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GRUB Is Set To Be THE Story Of The Second Half With A Price Target Of $150

Posted by admin on Jul 9, 2019

GRUB Is Set To Be THE Story Of The Second Half With A Price Target Of $150

It wasn't that long ago that Zenolytics put out a note detailing how Zillow had the potential to be a great first half story given its track record of outperformance during the first half of nearly every year in its existence. The stock didn't disappoint, creating a gain in the 40% range during the first half of 2019. As we turn our attention to the second half of 2019, with every intention of replicating Zillow's results with another big swing type of opportunity, GRUB has popped on the radar in a big way. Well, let's be clear, GRUB has been on the radar since it went public some years ago. The current pullback is not something that was forecast by any stretch of the imagination. It is an opportunity, however, to take advantage of the fear related to the massive turbulence that is taking place in food delivery presently. The turbulence in GRUB's space has been related to a well funded group of competitors making life for the only profitable player in the space (GRUB) difficult. This has led to compressed margins and declining net income as GRUB has had to grab its WuTang Sword to drive back the oncoming swarm. All the meanwhile, due to the various incentives competitors such as DoorDash and Postmates are offering, which basically equates to free food in some circumstances, the competition is picking up market share. To be sure, DoorDash now has greater overall market share than GRUB for the first time ever. All the meanwhile, DoorDash is getting late round funding at a $13 billion valuation. GRUB is currently trading at a $7 billion market cap for a relative comparison. Why step into this seemingly crowded market with GRUB? Total addressable market here is substantial. To date, we are only seeing 5% saturation in the restaurant digital delivery space. Either GRUB is terribly undervalued or venture money is insane for valuing DoorDash at a near 100% premium to GRUB. Highly likely its the former. Management at GRUB is terrific. The CEO is the original founder, having grinded from near nothing into a company with a billion plus in revenue. He recently purchased a million dollars worth of stock in the open market. The chief product officer of the company is a former Amazon executive with a vast amount of experience delivering...

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THE GUN: OVTI – OH MAN HOMIE, THE MARKET IS PLAYING TRICKS ON ME

Mar03

THE GUN: OVTI – OH MAN HOMIE, THE MARKET IS PLAYING TRICKS ON ME

Posted By admin on Mar 3, 2011

click on the chart below to enlarge:

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OVTI – TRADE UPDATE FOLLOWUP

Posted By admin on Mar 3, 2011

I do have room for one more allocation into OVTI should it decide to move higher from our initial entry point. This is a short to intermediate term trading position for the portfolios.

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TRADE UPDATE – OVTI

Posted By admin on Mar 3, 2011

Starting a short position in OVTI at 32.27-32.30. Reasons outlined in video last week http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=974

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THE GUN – A POSSIBLE TRADING TRIGGER ABOUT TO GO BANG

Feb28

THE GUN – A POSSIBLE TRADING TRIGGER ABOUT TO GO BANG

Posted By admin on Feb 28, 2011

I mentioned this one last week. Symbol is TDSC. I'm looking for an opportunity to get short the stock and I think the time may be approaching. Market cap: $1 billion Float: 20 million Percent short: 9% Average volume: 116,000 Further commentary of the chart: click on chart to...

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VIDEO THE GUN – A TRADE IN OVTI SERVED ON A PLATTER

Posted By admin on Feb 27, 2011

Please make sure to enlarge video to full screen by clicking the arrows located at the bottom right hand corner of the video...

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VIDEO THE GUN – A BLOATED SHORT OPPORTUNITY AND REVIEW OF OIL

Posted By admin on Feb 23, 2011

Please make sure to enlarge video to full screen by clicking the arrows located at the bottom right hand corner of the video...

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THE GUN – TRADING TRIGGERS FOR THE COMING WEEK – CHARTS & *VIDEO*

Feb21

THE GUN – TRADING TRIGGERS FOR THE COMING WEEK – CHARTS & VIDEO

Posted By admin on Feb 21, 2011

Please make sure to enlarge the video screen by clicking on bottom right hand...

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