PORTFOLIO UPDATE: UNTOUCHABLE POSSE
During the trading day I tweeted the following: By now it should be obvious to all that I enjoyed merry-go-rounds growing up, attempting to duplicate the experience in adulthood through the financial markets. I speak, of course, about GSIG. I have been tossed around like a anorexic dwarf at a frat party since early 2011 in GSIG. It should be noted, however, that my original cost basis on the stock was somewhere in the $2 range when it was mired in bankruptcy, with its very existence as a functioning future entity in doubt. I've done well with the stock since 2010, but never expected for an 18 month trading range to develop as it has. Nevertheless, I wouldn't be taking the position if I didn't think that the range was going to breakout to the upside here soon. There is value in the name, which is why I keep taking shots at it going back and forth between making 5% and losing 5%. I will eventually catch this tiger by the tail and when I do, I sure as hell won't let go. The newest research report was posted to the website today, in case you missed it. SPNS is another position I have been accumulating as of late. Full details of the investment are in the research report. It is another small-cap play that is in the right place at the right time, while a majority of Wall Street looks into the myopic tunnel of flying large-cap turds that provide the liquidity and professional camaraderie necessary to facilitate their squirrel like minds and pebble sized testicles, overlooking opportunities for 300% plus gains in companies such as SPNS. Overpaid apes in suits and ties should be regarded with great suspicion not some of the time, but all of the time. My current exposure is now back to 75% equities and 25% cash. A comfortable posture for the time being. I am in the positive again this month, after avoiding the pitfalls of May, turning lemons into lemonade through a simple combination of stock picking and risk management. To be clear, the current portfolio consists of the following: SYNC, SPRT, SPNS, GSIG, ATNY A simple, pure and elegant portfolio if I've ever seen...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
During the trading day Friday, I tweeted the following: This is the kickoff of activity targeting a 75% invested portfolio position by the middle to end of this coming week. SPRT is a position that was previously held in the portfolio and a company that I have 8 years of experience with. I previously initiated the position on January 29th at roughly 2.60 and sold on March 29th at approximately 3.15 for a 20% plus gain. The upside target is once again above 3 and perhaps more if market conditions continue to improve. I need long side exposure while at the same time keeping my risk profile intact. I am looking for opportunities but want to be sure that my risk isn't infinite should my trend indicators be in whipsaw mode, with the market attempting to retest the June lows sometime in the coming weeks. Given the conditions, these types of contingencies always need to be considered. Brings me to my next point: My short-term trend indicator did turn on Friday. More importantly, my long-term trend indicator doesn't look like it will turn to the bearish side, signalling the portfolios to move into a 100% cash position. Both of these mechanical events brought me a sense of inner-peace on Friday. I enjoy putting money to work and I see opportunity in this market that would make me despise sitting in cash. Friday brought relief...for the short-term at the very least. I am constructing pieces of the research report for the newest small-cap opportunity currently. It will be released no later than Wednesday. I enjoy sharing these opportunities with all of you and look forward to witnessing the success of this most recent small-cap investment opportunity over the next several months and possibly years. As usual, tomorrow I will be presenting the weekly chart review to assist in navigating the markets during the week ahead. Enjoy your...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE: STILL RIPPING
During the trading day I tweeted the following: The original research report on AUTH was published on May 8th here. In my constant pursuit of investment perfection, it became apparent that AUTH was at a point where it warranted a cessation of exposure. Any of you who have been following along for more than a few weeks know that I enjoy riding profits, believing that it is imperative to performing optimally over the long-term. I am not frightened off by the potential to give back profits just because I have them. That is an amateur's game that should be quickly be set aside if you wish to prosper in the markets. AUTH presented me with a number of reasons for today's actions: 1. I hate rumors of anything having to do with the IPhone. A good deal of AUTH's recent advance is due to speculation that they new IPhone will feature AUTH authentication software. While it may indeed be true in this case, I have seen way too many IPhone software, hardware, wig and lipstick runs end with nothing but rabbit ears. 2. It hit my technical target that I have been mentioning over the past week. Please see the chart below. 3. My long-term trend indicator looks like it has a good chance of flipping over should the market move against my expectations and keep falling back. Remember, my short-term and intermediate-term trend indicator flipped in May taking me to a 50% cash position. Should the long-term trend indicator flip, I will be 100% cash regardless of what my feelings or research tell me. I'm a slave to risk management and these are my tools. After taking profits on AUTH, I stand at roughly 30% invested, leaving the portfolio in a heavy 70% cash position. My only long exposure is in SYNC and...
RISK MANAGEMENT AND WHALE RIDING
During the trading day I tweeted the following: A difficult choice to liquidate GSIG. It's a company that - barring an economic meltdown over the next 12 months - will be well above current prices. It came down to a question of the maturity of the trade, as well as how much influence the general market would have over the company. By maturity I mean that the company is well past their restructuring stage and has resumed normal operations. They do not have the same concept edge that SYNC and AUTH have. And they are not in the midst of an activist promotion in the same manner as ATNY. I also chose to keep SYNC because it has been my best performer of the 2nd quarter thus far. Holding onto winners is imperative. I'm surprised at how jittery traders get when they catch a fish in these oceans. Being afraid to get bit and releasing the fish back in the water will only get you so far. GSIG will be at the top of my list for a rebuy should my trend indicators turn back up over the next few weeks or months due to the outstanding fundamentals, cheap valuation and management team involved. Now it is all about SYNC, ATNY and AUTH. The worst performer among the bunch is ATNY. Wouldn't you know it, from a purely fundamental standpoint, ATNY is also the most attractively valued. I have no plans on adding to the position. I am perfectly comfortable holding here despite the poor showing thus far. The research on ATNY is here. AUTH I have been pleasantly surprised with given the weak market conditions. It is only a matter of time before the type of mobile security concept that AUTH produces catches on with consumers and investors. It is the type of stock that can easily create a buzz if the right set of conditions comes into play. A concept company with some very solid fundamentals much like SYNC. The research for AUTH is here. If my trend indicators were pointing upward I would be looking to add to my AUTH position on further strength. Unfortunately, I'm stalled out from adding any risk for the time being. SYNC is coming along as expected. I understand that the volatility can be unnerving at times, but it comes with the territory. What is going on with SYNC is not at all a classic pump and dump scheme as some seem to think. The concept of a pump and dump takes place with a company that wouldn't otherwise merit investment if not for the promoters creating a false demand for...
SPIDER-DEMONS
During the trading day I tweeted the following: SYNC was initiated on March 29th. While I believe the upside remains substantial from here, my intermediate term trend indicator flipped to sell today. My job isn't to fall in love with companies based on my analysis. But rather to manage risk appropriately based on prevailing market conditions. I am in the process of liquidating and will have more reports tomorrow before the close. Currently, I am nearing a 50% cash position. It is always a difficult proposition to pick and choose between companies that you deeply believe in with every ounce of your analytical soul. I have, however, seen it too many times. When the market gets into THAT mode, it doesn't care about anything but devouring the hearts and minds of believers. It will take whatever faith you have in rational analysis - whether technical or fundamental - and turn that faith into your very own living nightmare. While we could very well be nearing a bottom for this move down, we are also nearing a point where things get dangerous. When that danger approaches you had better be sure you have a fortified plan in place to deal with the repercussions of a market that moves swiftly and takes no prisoners. I hate to bring up the Facebook IPO because it has become the only topic of conversation amongst every blogger, analyst and pundit since the IPO. I must, however, comment as there are some very real consequences for investors. First of all, I will say that I believe Facebook as a company will flourish in the years ahead. Their revenue models are literally in the first inning of development. They bring together 500 million people per day that spend more time on the website than any other. Whereas Google is a tool that you use to discover information, spending no more than a few minutes at a time on, Facebook is a destination. The uses of this virtual gathering place for all peoples of the world is just being tapped. It will take vision to understand and stick with the company as an investment. All those analysts who are attempting to gauge the company using traditional earnings models may look like geniuses now, but I assure you that they will look like fools in the coming years. Over the short to intermediate term what has occurred over the past few business days is nothing short of a disaster for both the market and the company. An already jaded retail investor that literally considers the stock market a playground for demons with suits and ties was gang-raped by them...
DO YOU HAVE A WAY OF SAVING YOU FROM YOU?
During the trading day today I tweeted the following: I'll explain this concept again because I think that it is the single most important component of investment success. You cannot simply depend on being a good stock picker to make it in this business. You must also have a means of controlling risk that is of your choosing and attuned to your tastes. It may be as simple as having a 5% stop below your entry point. It may be as complicated as a mechanical system with 18 separate parameters that take into account everything from price momentum to the current wind gusts in Santiago, Chile. Doesn't matter. There needs to be a system of controlling risk in place. My risk-management system triggered today. I absolutely hated the fact that it triggered and was praying that I would avoid it since the beginning of the week. It is no secret that I am bullish here. I think that we are about to see a bottom - perhaps by the middle of next week - that could drive this market substantially higher over the coming months. And that is exactly why I have this system in place: To save me from me. I'm not saying that my personal feelings about the market are incorrect or inaccurate. In fact, I am right more often than I am wrong. This site is a testament to the fact, as is my past history on Wall Street. When I am wrong, however, it always begins with the confidence I have right at this moment about the bullish outcome of the market from this point on. You don't fall into steep drawdowns by being indecisive about which way the market is going to go. You fall into a deep drawdown because of the fact that you unequivocally and without any doubts believe in your analysis. I am here to tell you that you need something to circumvent that belief. You need an interruption switch that gets you away from you at points where the danger is the greatest. This is coming from a guy who in his twenties blew up a hedge fund that had many millions of dollars under management and many more millions in capital commitments after finishing the prior 12 months ranked #1. I had a client base that other fund managers would kill for. I had the resources. I had the institutional support. I had the track record. I didn't have one thing: There was NO interruption switch. There was nothing in place to save me from me during times when danger was bubbling beneath the surface. So when I decided to...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
During the trading day today I tweeted the following: The research is here http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=4042 As of the close today, I am 100% invested. In no particular order I am holding for accounts the following: - AUTH - See research report - GSIG - Remain bullish here. What has occurred recently looks like nothing more than a shakeout of those who were anticipating a breakout of the bullish pattern a couple weeks back. A bargain. No doubt. - SYNC - There seems to be confusion in the air regarding SYNC at present. Those who have become associated with the name have a past. That past does not necessarily disqualify the company as a result of the association. All that is happening is that what was going to take 6 months has been condensed into 6 days due to the attention. What was going to take 30 months may also be condensed into 30 days. The story here is far from over. We are now simply sitting in the range that company execs thought it should IPO at originally. A pump and dump? Really? Not even close. And those putting their money behind that thinking will be evaporated into small particles only leaving their reptilian tails behind as a sign they ever existed in the first place. This stock is under heavy accumulation. I have seen nothing to change my mind away from that fact. - CIS has been disappointing, thus far. It is trading close to net cash of roughly $2 per share now. Downside from here seems minimal. The only reason I am not considering adding and will likely keep the position relatively small is because it is a Chinese company. I cannot be sure what is on the other side of the coin here. I am not a robotic clown who believes that all Chinese companies are frauds. At the same time, if CIS was based in Cleveland, Ohio instead of Beijing, I would have a lot easier of a time buying into the story. It's a value and I plan on holding for the foreseeable future. - YELP - A brilliant future here. Misunderstood company. Reminds me of Yahoo when it came public in 1996 to a skeptic Wall Street audience that had no idea what the next few years had in store. I believe Wall Street, as a whole, has not learned much from that experience. Ignorance remains pervasive and widespread. - ATNY - Takeover play extraordinaire. Not a matter of if, but simply a matter of when. A wonderful team heading this company up. All of these companies have research available. You can access by clicking...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: I have now moved into a 100% invested position. If you recall, I started the process of raising cash on March 28th, just a few days off the recent top April 2nd. All of my mechanical trend indicators are now firmly positive causing today's move back to fully invested. May could very well be a month when the market displays profound reverence for the bulls. In no particular order, I am holding GSIG, SYNC, YELP, CIS and ATNY for now and into the foreseeable...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
I tweeted the following trades this past week: I also spent the week accumulating a position in ATNY. I provided an in-depth research report outlining the compelling reasons why I bought into this name. The report is here http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=3955 GSIG, ATNY, YELP, SYNC and CIS make up the Dream...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
All the positions I accumulated during the first quarter have now been sold. All were sold for a profit, with the most significant being PTGI gaining close to 40% since January. During the trading day today I tweeted the following: PTGI today announced the sale of their Australian unit for roughly $200 million US. While it is debatable whether or not they received adequate value for the unit, what can be said is that the company balance sheet continues to improve with the proceeds from this sale. It also shows you that there was indeed value here that was awaiting the right environment to be unlocked. The sale of the Australian unit seemed like a culminating event over the intermediate term for PTGI. Paired with the fact that I was looking to get into a larger cash position, the temptation to lock in some nice gains simply proved too much. I look forward to buying back into PTGI as I believe the company has substantial upside remaining over the next 1-2 years. Continuing to hold positions in SYNC and CIS. Have a very small position in DPTRQ, which suffered through a disappointing day today. I am expecting to see some news with respect to whether shareholder value will be preserved or not by the end of this month. Have a busy schedule of meetings during the day and entertaining a couple clients from out of town through Wednesday. If there is anything substantial or interesting to report, you'll see it on Twitter first. Follow me...