PORTFOLIO UPDATE
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: SPRT has become my go to stock when I am looking for exposure. And why not? It has been very good to me this year. I've traded it a couple times, both instances for double digit percentage gains. The current portfolio now consists of PXLW, WMIH, SPNS, ATNY and SPRT. I'm at 85% invested, with a 15% cash position that I would like to put to work over the next week or two. My trend indicators are all 100% in bull mode now, indicating that cash is a...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: The research report on PXLW is available here. PXLW and WMIH are the two largest positions in the portfolio. ATNY and SPNS round out the foursome. I'm roughly 75% invested, with the remaining 25% in cash. I would like to find an area to allocate those funds to over the next several days. I will update via Twitter and on this forum once I...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE: AUTHENTEC PURCHASED BY APPLE
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: As most of you know, the largest position in the portfolios AUTH was bought out by AAPL today for a 60% plus premium from Thursday's close and a 73% premium from my reentry price on July 15th. The original research on AUTH from May 8th is here http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=4042 My problem now lies in the uncertainty of what to do with a 50% plus cash position in the face of my trend indicators that are quickly telling me that a 100% long position is warranted. I may have another new candidate that I will be announcing sometime in the coming week. I already profiled one new investment earlier this week. Current holdings: SPNS, ATNY and WMIH. I'll have more data and research this weekend. Have a good...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: All info regarding WMIH is available in the research report here...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE: EVERYDAY I’M SHUFFLING
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: One nice winner. One nice loser. In the end, a wash really. SPRT has too much beta in its pants to hold onto during uncertain market times. It has become a nice trading stock. I initiated it, for a second time, at 2.60 on June 16th. Earlier this year I rode it up from the 2.60 range into the 3 range for a profit. I may pursue it again if it moves back down around 2.50-2.60. Have to see which way the cookie crumbles. As for GSIG, it has become my arch-nemesis. I love the company because I did so well on it between 2010 and 2011. That love, however, may be clouding my judgement. The price pattern just keeps on getting more convoluted. I can't make sense of it anymore. I have to move on. Probably the last time I reach for that dish for quite sometime to come. The stock has simply churned me all year. The primary reason for these sells is because I am making room for my newest holding that I have been accumulating since Monday. I will release a full research report on it later this week. This research report has been one of the most difficult I have ever undertaken. There are so many facets to the situation here that I sometimes feel that I am over my head in researching it. However, the upside possibility is so great while the risk is so well defined that it is just simply too good to pass up. You will understand once I present the facts. I am trying to understand it the best I can and want to be able to communicate the opportunity to you the best I can, as well. Takes time...and I'm a one man team. As of the close today I am holding shares of the new holding (to be released), ATNY, AUTH and SPNS. The untouchable posse has lost a few but remains as ruthless as...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE: MORE AUTH
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: This is in addition to the buy I made on AUTH Thursday and Friday between the prices of 4.45-4.55, announced on Twitter during trading hours. There was a news event attached to the move today. Samsung will be using AUTH security products in its new Android phones and tablets. One step closer, I presume, to the big fish - Apple. If you haven't already done so, please read over my research report on AUTH from May 8th that outlines the bullish scenario for this company going forward. I expect that with their next earnings report, in August I believe, the company will report numbers that will more than justify a stock price double current levels. A close over 5.25 sets up a quick move over 6 and beyond. I'll update the chart when that price event takes...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE: AUTH IS A DOUBLE DIGIT STOCK IN SINGLE DIGIT CLOTHING
During the trading day Friday, I tweeted the following: AUTH was originally initiated on May 8th, 2012 at 3.65 with a research report titled: "AUTH Represents A Substantial Opportunity In The Wireless Sector." Subsequently, on June 5th, I took a 37% profit for portfolios at 4.95 - 5. The stock got as high as 5.10 before moving back close to 4 and rebounding above 4.50 recently. Those of you who have been observing my behavior as a trader/investor regularly know that I am a proponent of allowing profits to run. A great majority of traders/investors in today's environment cannot differentiate between digesting large amounts of diverse communication and sitting tight in a stock. That may have been a confusing way to put it. Let's try this: What it comes down to, at its essence, is that the vast information flow should not turn into a vast trading flow. You have to be able to digest the second by second bursts of information and remain confident in your position. There must be a discipline at work that allows you separate yourself from the Pavlovian instinct to simply cut and run just because a profit exists. Great years all come down to a few good trades or investments. All the rest is managing risk. Ok. Now that my rant is finished, I will get back to AUTH. I would have normally allowed a 37% profit after one month to run. However, in the case of AUTH, there were signs that the price movement to 5 was climactic in nature. This became even more evident when rumors of the new IPhone using AUTH software began making the rounds. IPhone rumors for small cap companies are like Bigfoot. You get several sightings every year from guys with names like Billy-Bob and Kletus, with the occasional photograph of what is obviously a man with a gorilla mask, most often blanketed by a tree. But not once has Billy-Bob or Kletus called a news conference to showoff their catch. Now that the dust has settled, it seems that AUTH is proving itself once again by looking technically stellar in the midst of a difficult market. click chart to...
PORTFOLIO POSITION REVIEW: ONE BY ONE
It has been awhile since I put together one of these. Now is the time since I'm beginning to get the feeling that it may be time to begin shifting things around a bit. I also feel that we are very close to a point in time where I will either be moving into an even heavier cash position (at 50% right now) or I'll be moving into a 100% invested position. Either way, the second half of my year will likely depend on decisions made over the next several weeks. No pressure at all. None. Here are my thoughts on current positions: GSIG - Absolute frustration here. The only consolation is that I bought into the company when it was in bankruptcy during late 2010 at $2 and change, eventually riding it up to above 10 before selling in early 2011. Perhaps it is my reluctance to let it go because of that profit that has kept me around. But when I look at the fundamentals here, I can't argue with it as an investment. It has all the attributes I like: Great management, low float, restructured, undiscovered and under-appreciated. From a value perspective it is trading at less than 10 times forward earnings and continues to generate cash on a quarter by quarter basis. Additionally, the company has taken the fiscally conservative approach of reducing debt at every opportunity they get. While this doesn't allow them to leverage up and go for the gusto so to speak, it is a prudent move given the history of the company. The price action just stinks, however. It has been caught in this extraterrestrial sideways range for about a year and a half. It will eventually be a $20 stock. I just am not sure if I have the patience to stick with it when there seem to be more expedient opportunities out there. ATNY - The past few days have been difficult here. Earnings were released and obviously have been given a thumbs down by the market. The major issue with the earnings release is that the restructuring taking place with one of their divisions seems to be taking longer than expected and is proving to be more costly, as well. Not a good combination for a levered company sitting on only $18 million cash. The good news is that the restructuring costs do not effect their cash position. Additionally, it seems that the market is bothered by the negative spending cycle taking place in the defense sector generally. There is a budget crisis that effects defense spending, leaving huge amounts of uncertainty for investors to weigh. There is also...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: SYNC was the largest position in the portfolio. Selling it brings me back down to a 50% cash position when I should be at 75% invested according to my mechanical system of allocation. This leaves me with a distinct dilemma: I need exposure, but am having great difficulty in finding the proper candidates. I don't want to force the issue either. My only choice here is to wait until the right opportunity comes along. It could be later this week or it could be in a month. At this point, I'm not sure. The current portfolio consists of ATNY, GSIG, SPRT, SPNS and roughly 50% cash. Still up for the month, despite giving back a bulk of the gains today with SYNC's...
SYNC: KICKED OUT OF THE CLUB TODAY FOR UNRULY BEHAVIOR
A profitable relationship with SYNC ended today. It was kicked to the curb during the first couple hours of trading. As most of you know, I initiated a position in SYNC on March 29th in the low-7 range. I added to the position on April 30th in the 8 range. It became the largest position in the portfolio as a result of appreciation, constituting roughly 25% of the portfolio before today's sell. I didn't have a clue, inkling or feeling that today would be the day I would sell SYNC. There are times I know I will be selling soon and times, like today, where I am forced to act by an event outside the realm of expectations. I had a target above 20 for SYNC either taking place this week or in the coming weeks. That was my expectation. The expectation or rather, my analysis, is never wrong. It is the market that is in error or out of sync (no pun intended). I'm not making an arrogant statement in saying that my analysis is never wrong if you read into it correctly. What it means when I say that my analysis is never wrong is that there is a correct mode of behavior for a stock or index and an incorrect one. My analysis lays out the correct path of behavior. When the behavior diverges from that path I realize that I am dealing with a stock or index that has become ill, so to speak. At that point, I sever my relationship with that stock or index. SYNC should have continued above 20 this week or in the coming weeks before pulling back. That would have been the normal course of behavior. Even if it didn't reach 20, a move to 18 or 19 let's say followed by consolidation or an orderly pullback. I would have been fine with that. It wasn't the fact that SYNC went below 15 or 14 that was bothersome today. It was the manner in which it did it and the volume that accompanied it. Again, so far outside the range of expectations that I cannot accurately assess its risk from this point on. Whenever I become fuzzy about my risk in a stock, regardless of how much I believe in the company, I can no longer have anything to do with that company. SYNC has been booted. Walked away with roughly a 100% gain in a little over 3 months for the portfolios. I'm happy about that. What I am not happy about is that given the circumstances surrounding the stock, I will likely not be allocating into the name...