On The Final Trading Day of June, This Happened….
That final bar of the final day for the final month of the third quarter. That bar wasn't a coincidence. The market didn't gap up above key resistance, essentially forming a thrust, turning former resistance into support on the final day of June and the final day of Q2 on accident. The market didn't end the day, week, month, quarter and year to date 2023 on the final day of Q2 at its highs because we have tough times ahead. Everything that you just witnessed was purposeful and consequential. There are no accidents in the markets. There is intent and purpose behind everything. Innocuous and inconspicuous bullish price formations have been with us for this entire move up, while the markets worked their slight of hand, focusing everyone's attention on inflation, the Fed, Ukraine, China, recession and so on. None of this was an accident. Price was speaking to investors the entire way up. What is separating the winners from the losers in 2023 are those who chose to listen to price and those who chose to ignore it. It really is that simple. And yet again, price has spoken investors on Friday, June 30th. Those who continue to listen will be the ones who walk away with the greatest profits come July 31st. Rinse and repeat. Horns up. Paws down. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor...
Today Was Consequential Despite The Flat Finish
Here is why: As the market consolidates right at key resistance, we can see that for two days in a row we have touched the resistance level on the dot, closing slightly below resistance while consolidating perfectly. Notice how the daily ranges have been contracting on the way down, with today continuing that trend as we experienced a range day that was less than 50% of yesterday's overall trading range. What does this represent? It represents bidders remaining a dominant force in the market. When bidders disappear during a pullback you see large ranges with sloppy price action along the way. When bidders remain a dominant force in the market, you see tight ranges with clean price action as those bidders are consistently deploying capital, efficiently cleaning up any mess that sellers attempt to leave behind. Put as simply as possible: Bidders remain a dominant force in this market. What that means is that all the fear based nonsense you hear about the markets being on their last leg, this being a suckers rally, bear market remains intact, a recession is around the corner and so on should be muted. What is important are the capital flows. And according to everything that price action is telling us, the flows remain very bullish. This is but one of the many bullish indicators of what is to come. The horns are getting sharper by the day. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of...
Are Investors About To Enter Valhalla?
When we last left off, I discussed the week of June 12th marking a short-term high for the SPX after coming eye to eye with key resistance at 4350. With the SPX putting in its worst weekly performance since early March this past week, it's fair to say that we are seeing the response I expected to this resistance level which now allows investors to judge the health of the markets after this recent runup, along with the potential for further gains. In the same note I referenced above, I discussed the first week of July being the time to pounce on the long side after the coming pullback. In the 354th edition of Turning Points this weekend I discussed the signals the market is sending following this recent pullback, along with why those signals are dictating increased long exposure into the middle of July, at the very least. The current consolidation at resistance is like nothing we have seen since the peak in late 2021/early 2022. In fact, this past week was such a data driven technical bonanza for the bulls that it's not entirely outrageous to say that a vertical ascent could take place into earnings season. The fear of missing out that will develop into early Q3 as investors fear a replay of their Q2 brain fart to remain short or in cash way longer than they should will be reason enough for a flamethrower to ignite the fuse of the market during what is a seasonally favorable period into mid-July. Unfortunately for such a large number of investors, one of my final tweets for 2022 still holds true, even after this recent runup. The other reason investors will be frothing at the mouth after stocks as we kick off Q3 is that Q1 earnings delivered such spectacular results that within a generation of front-runners, there will be a cold, hard sprint to get ahead of the next man to buy some stock prior to Q2 earnings being released. So essentially we have the perfect combination of technical, seasonal and event driven factors coming into fruition as we close out Q2 and enter Q3. Levering up with a mix of small-cap and large-cap names in the days ahead. Horns up. Paws down. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained...
The Market Setup For The Week Ahead Is More Clear Than Most Realize
Just sent clients the 350th edition of Turning Points going over the setup for the week ahead, along with the opportunities that will emerge as a result. This is a fascinating week coming up on a number of levels. As fortune would dictate, we are going into a pivotal week with CPI, PPI and Fed while sitting at an even more pivotal price level. In case you haven't been following along, I have been discussing the 4300 level for the SPX for a number of months now on both Twitter and here. It's THE most important technical point in the markets, dictating to a large degree market behavior not just for the rest of Q2, but well into Q3, and perhaps the remainder of 2023. We are encountering this price level just as volatility is set to expand this coming week with CPI, PPI, the Fed and Powell. Therein lies the problem for the markets. Unless this coming week is unidirectional to the upside, with the SPX closing at 4400+, there are little pathways to further upside for June. In other words, there is a very high probability that this week will mark a short-term peak for the SPX given all the factors that are working to create a reversal here. The only question is whether that short-term peak will turn into something more. As of now, I have a 2-3 week peak, lasting into the first week of July at the most before the bull makes it back into Q2 earnings. However, given the structure of the decline that is to come, that scenario can change very quickly. The market has sucked in enough participants now that it may just unleash some real pain for sometime to come. I don't necessarily favor this scenario, however, much like I have been doing for most of this year, I am keeping an open mind as to what may lie ahead. Bottomline: Contrary to what most everyone is expecting, there are very few pathways to a bullish outcome this week. The markets will suck investors into thinking otherwise. Don't fall for it. Truth in price comes from Thursday - Friday. How we close the week matters more than anything else. Guard your profits. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website...
We Have Arrived
I've been discussing 4300 since covering shorts and getting bullish in late March/early April. Fast forward here we are two months later. 4200 really didn't offer up much resistance. 4300-4350 is a different story, however. The high for Friday's trading sessions was 4290. We are now entering the zone. It's not just the generational resistance that comes into play at 4300-4350, going back quite a few decades, it is also a long-term supply area as shown by the following charts of the SPX and NDX. The exact levels the SPX is testing now are where the breakdown in the market emanated from in 2022. Markets have a memory. That memory includes jaded investors who held through the entire scary, Fed induced, macro laced market of the past 18 months. Those investors will be creating supply as the SPX moves back above the breakdown area. To be clear, there is enough emerging demand that they won't be able to tank the markets, but they can grind things to a screeching halt for the time being. A few other factors coming into play, like a spike in yields, has the potential to turn things ugly for a period during the first few weeks of June. Same thing with NDX, supply area ahead. The NDX broke down from this price level in early 2022, retested it shortly thereafter and then fell into oblivion for a time. This becomes a natural resistance area where supply comes into the market for a time. It's not just this resistance that is in play up here, however. In this weekend's edition of Turning Points I shared 11 charts pointing to now being the time to be conservative, at the very least, with long positioning. An important week ahead technically. Let's see where it takes us. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is...
The First Half Of June Promises A Different Look From What Investors Have Recently Become Used To
While most everyone was convulsing in fear over the ramifications of a debt ceiling debacle, while also being paralyzed by the emotional abuse the market has handed out on a consistent basis for the past 18 months, the Zenolytics team (consisting of just me) ignored the noise, doing what we do best: That is identifying truth in price. Prior to the acceleration of trend in the NDX and the breakout in the SPX, about 1000 points ago and 200 points ago respectively, on May 18th I published a note on this site titled Here Is Why We Are In The Midst Of The Most Important Move Of 2023, With An Even More Critical Move Being Imminent. Now that most everyone has realized what we knew weeks ago, there is an argument to be made that the markets will be offended for a short period of time. The offensive nature of what has transpired comes in the form of investors believing that the markets will accommodate their sense of cowardice, by allowing a threat free jump into the water now that the danger of getting bitten by any number of fanged creatures has disappeared. Debt ceiling behind us. Earnings better than expected, much to the shock of nearly everyone except for us here. Fed is quickly moving to the rear view, with economic data having less of an impact. All of these macro factors are fantastic indicators of intermediate to long-term strength in the markets. However, over the short-term, the feeling of safety investors have recently experienced must be tested. There are numerous examples of investor comfort coming to a crescendo this past week. Here is one with the 2 and 5 day moving averages of the equity put/call ratio nearing their lows for 2023. And surprise surprise, the last time the put/call was at these levels in early February the S&P was testing the same trajectory we are about to test now. To be absolutely clear, I remain bullish throughout the remainder of this year. The surprises will continue to be to the upside. However, in the very near-term (next 2 weeks), there could be a bit of turbulence to throw everyone off until the markets begin to gain traction in anticipation of what is to come. I'll get to what is to come in a future note. In the meantime, approach new positions on the long side with caution and treat profits with care, while carefully guarding them. Have a good weekend. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and...
Here Is Why We Are In the Midst Of The Most Important Market Move of 2023, With An Even More Critical Move Being Imminent
Here is the chart of the NDX as it accelerates away from a near 30 year trajectory (in white) that has acted as critical support/resistance for what has basically been a majority of the life of the Nasdaq 100 as an index. It has been a year now since the Nasdaq has been consolidating in, around, over and under the the key resistance point that we just blew away this week. The Nasdaq further confirmed the legitimacy of the move by exceeding the critical 13720 level. Why 13720? It was the August 2022 peak. That August peak ushered in a whole new regime of inflationary worries with further uncertainty about how long the Fed would continue their rate hiking campaign. This has been resolved as of today. The move we have seen in the Nasdaq this week is the most important technical move of 2023 to date. There is, however, a level upcoming on the S&P 500 that is even more critical than the 30 year trajectory on the Nasdaq 100. The red trajectory that currently sits at 4350 for the SPX is important for multiple reasons. First, it has been a key point of contention for the market for all of 2023. In fact, the technical reversal at the February highs off of this key technical level was why we went bearish at that those highs until the end of March when we switched back to the bull side. Secondly, exceeding the red trajectory puts the SPX in the midst of a series of key technical levels that will be prove to be a real test for the market. How it treats this impending test will give us a ton of price data revealing the strength and voracity of this baby bull run. Third, the first step to new all-time highs for the S&P begins at 4350. Not many technicians, if any at all, realize this fact. For this reason, accurately gauging how the market reacts to the 4350 level will be a huge advantage for those who interpret the markets correctly from there. We are presently in the midst of the first consequential set of price moves for 2023. In fact, what we are experiencing presently is the first set of consequential market moves not just for 2023, but since the middle of 2022, as well. The stakes have been raised considerably. Interpret what you see from this point forward wisely. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. ...
New Edition of Zenolytics Turning Points Is Out: A Discussion Of Why Today’s Move In the Nasdaq Is Not One To Be Ignored, Along With Analysis of Additions To Positions & A New Position To Be Taken At The Open Tomorrow
In this 347th edition of Turning Points a discussion of why today's move in the Nasdaq is not one to be ignored, along with analysis of additions to positions taken during the trading day and a new position to be taken at the open tomorrow. It's important to listen to what the market is saying here while ignoring every other piece of seemingly critical information. The critical pieces of information are primarily in the form of fundamental news flow that mostly paints a picture of severe doom and gloom in one form or another. Whether geopolitics based, recession based, inflation based or otherwise, there is no shortage of hooks to hang your hat on if you choose to be bearish right now. However, what the market has been telling us for most of 2023 is in stark contrast to all the bearish narratives that exist. The confusion lies in the fact that, at least for now, the heavy lifting for the market has mostly been done by a select few mega-cap tech stocks. This may be in the process of changing with today's breakout for the Nasdaq. To view the entirety of this note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital...
345th Edition Of Turning Points Preview: Portfolio Restructuring Time
In this 345th edition of Turning Points a review of why we went to 100% cash today along with profiling a new position being opened tomorrow morning. We were awarded a pretty good spot today to take some profits, which I decided was much too attractive an opportunity to pass up. To be clear, the current call is nothing like the early February call to not only exit all of our longs but get short over the next 1-2 months. Technically, other than the fact I was confident that the markets would retrace the gap up today, nothing really stood out. The SPX is up 0.03% for the week thus far. Another sideways affair, in other words. I can see some market shenanigans taking place over the next several trading days. I can also see a scenario where the market does breakout, but then retraces the gains. In either case, in 2023 to date, protecting profits at every turn has been the correct decision. I don't see this time as being different. The benefit that we have is the ability to get into a new group of risk/reward opportunities that will provide an improved risk profile while allowing us to participate in further upside, if the market chooses to continue its move up. Resetting a portfolio (moving to a large or 100% cash position) for short to intermediate term traders is a highly underrated tactic. First, it allows a trader to view the market without bias, enhancing one's ability to make optimal decisions at critical junctures. Second, it forces one to seek new opportunities that often have better risk profiles than names that have run 30, 50 or 100 percent. Third, it allows for agility in a portfolio, while creating the habit of being flexible in one's views. The biggest losses come after a good run, while getting attached to specific thesis or a group of positions. Where we are currently in the market is in a 3-5 day period where conditions can get volatile in both directions. Rather than sitting around, hoping for the best, the decision was made today to reset and reallocate....small at first. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website...
Weekly Note Preview: The Classic Wall Of Worry That Has Developed; Significant Breakouts Taking Place In Mega-Cap Tech After Earnings; A New Crypto Related Position Added To The Portfolio
In this weekend's 344th edition of Turning Points we have a 12 page note detailing the classic wall of worry that is allowing this market to remain buoyant in the face of countless concerns; we discuss the numerous breakouts above key resistance that have taken place in mega-cap tech following Q1 earnings; highlighting the strongest sectors in the market along with the best way to participate; adding a new crypto related position to the portfolios that is on the verge of a significant breakout. The abundance of reasons to be bearish is one of the key factors that is keeping the markets so well intact, allowing for opportunities on the long side to take place. These bearish factors are also what is creating the tailwind in precious metals and crypto during 2023 as investors are seeking any kind of safety net to cushion the fall in case of the above described Armageddon scenario. While we dance around the chemical fire that has become the current economy, megacap tech companies are becoming more powerful than world governments as they continue to print money unabated. As discussed in recent editions of Turning Points, AAPL's price action was telling us that an earnings disappointment was a low probability scenario. We see now why AAPL was resting above resistance going into earning s with very little overall downside volatility. Earnings were better than expected, creating a nice move above resistance targeting new all-time highs over the intermediate term. Everything about the earnings move was perfect. From the way it moved above resistance, finally confirming that the move above trajectory was real. All the way to to volume, which wasn't overly euphoric or “blowoffish” in nature. AAPL's price action post earnings isn't delivering an overly- bullish message at all. What it is delivering is a message that downside is relatively non-existent unless some sort of black swan appears. In the current market structure, AAPL will slowly grind up providing resilience for the overall tech market. Here we have MSFT in what could be a preview of what AAPL will do a week after earnings. MSFT reported a week before AAPL. Since then it was simply held its gap and continued along on moderate volume, accelerating up and away from resistance that now becomes support. In last weekend's edition of Turning Points I discussed a 315-320 price target over the short-term for MSFT. It looks like we will get there this week. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions...