THE ONLY THING THAT WAS DISAPPOINTING THIS PAST WEEK
On August 14th, I posted an article titled "The SOX Needs Time Therefore The Entire Market Needs Time." The chart posted made the case for the SOX moving into a period of sideways movement as it met its upside trajectory point. What I didn't realize at the time was that the market wasn't going to let weakness in the pesky semiconductor sector hold it back from its preordained destiny. What has been surprising is that it turns out the SOX needed more time than I expected. Here is an updated analysis: click chart to...
THE PRICE PATTERN IN CRUDE OIL MAKES A PRIUS THE BEST INVESTMENT OF ALL
In early June, I posted a chart titled "Crude Oil: Just A Question Of How Quickly It Will Get Back Over $100 From Here" outlining the case for crude oil making a relatively quick bounce back to $100 from the mid-80 range. The analysis was 100% based on a long-term trajectory point that crude oil would find support with. I followed up with several other articles in the July and August further confirming that crude was headed back to triple digits. Now that we have essentially met the first trajectory target, I wanted to update readers as to the possibilities going forward: click chart to...
FROM A GOON TO A GOBLIN
Changes in character are one of the keys to judging whether an important index or your favorite stock is about to make its move. A change in character has nothing to do with penetrating some arbitrary moving average or one of the millions of indicators that exist turning green, blue, purple or a combination of the three. It has everything to do with price and volume. Price analysis is an endeavor that should be grounded in purity. There is no need to pollute it with indicators that are only derivatives of price. Learn how to interpret price and volume itself. You will be 100 times more successful. An example of a recent change in character took place in SPRT recently. Let's take a look: click chart to...
THE ASTOUNDING SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE YAHOO IPO AND FACEBOOK IPO CONTINUES TO BE…..ASTOUNDING
On August 2nd, I published an information piece titled "Facebook Is The Next Yahoo And That Makes It Very Bullish." In the article, I outlined the similarities in the price characteristics of the Yahoo and Facebook IPOs in the months following their debut. My purpose in publishing this information was to remind investors that IPOs do not always go as planned. This is irrespective of the fact that a company may be a thought leader, technological innovator or godsend from the planet Kepler. There can be market forces at work that demand investors are put through a period of adversity before the light can shine and flowers are given permission to bloom. Just because such an obscene and heinous event takes place does not mean there is a vast conspiracy against any class of investor. It also doesn't mean that there were criminal elements at work within the underwriting syndicate or within the company itself. Investors have become surprisingly quick to throw around these types of conspiracy theories without much thought. We are living in an era of skepticism and cynicism pertaining to anything Wall Street. Just as 12 years ago, we were living in an era of Wall Street being the holy grail to wealth and independence, with promises of double digit portfolio gains that would span generations to come. Both frames of thought are incorrectly influenced by the emotion of fear and greed surrounding that particular time. Furthermore, the pitiful versions of fundamental analysis that seem to grab a hold of unimaginative minds can only cost you when related to dynamic companies that have the eyeballs of the world transfixed. There is no bell that will ring in the form of a ratio or valuation that will determine when Facebook is a buy. It didn't ring for Yahoo, Amazon or even Google, a company that created nothing but doubt among both institutional and retail investors on its IPO date and for many months to follow. The first chart is that of YHOO 80 days into its IPO and FB 80 days into its IPO. The similarities are obvious. The second chart shows where YHOO is trading a year and a half after its IPO date. I expect FB to pull off something similar. It will make little sense. It will be criticized the entire way up. And that is exactly how its supposed to be. click chart to...
AN AAPL TIMELINE AND WHAT TO EXPECT FROM IT GOING FORWARD
Let's be clear, I own zero shares of AAPL. I probably will never own a single share of AAPL. Not because I am bearish on the stock or the market by any stretch. But rather due to the fact that I have the need to move into opportunities where few others bother to dwell. I become highly nervous and agitated when every person in the world knows, loves and talks about a stock I own. AAPL is the personification of know, love and talk in the stock market. Makes me want to whip my tail out and hang myself from a tree. That is exactly why I do not own AAPL. With all that said, during the entirety of 2012, I have managed to put my disdain for companies with cult followings aside in order to provide you, my ingenious guests, with countless opportunities to profit from the AAPL. I have been singing the AAPL song for months now due primarily to one of the most bullish technical structures you can have in a mega-cap name. Here is the timeline of my bullishness starting on July 25th, the day after an earnings announcement that got player haters from near and far drinking the Kool-Aid July 25th in an article aptly titled: The Drop In AAPL Today Did Nothing To Diminish The Favorable Technical Picture http://www.zenpenny.com/the-drop-in-aapl-today-did-nothing-to-diminish-the-favorable-technical-picture/ August 5th in an article aptly titled: AAPL Continuing Preparation For A Journey Into 700 Land http://www.zenpenny.com/aapl-continuing-preparation-for-a-journey-into-700-land/ August 26th in an article aptly titled: AAPL Keeps Whispering Sweet Nothings Via Its Price Pattern http://www.zenpenny.com/aapl-keeps-whispering-sweet-nothings-via-its-price-pattern/ What all of these articles have in common are continuous calls for AAPL to reach 700 and possibly 800 per share. A call that AAPL only continues to reinforce through behavior that I can only describe as technical excellence bordering on aburdity: click chart to...
6 CHARTS THAT MAKE A TYPICALLY DIFFICULT SEPTEMBER INTO ICE CREAM AND CAKE
click chart to enlarge
NEXT WEEK IS THE WEEK
We are still in a range. Only now we happen to be testing the bottom end of that range. As confusion and sub-par price analysis take hold, causing investors to confuse a continued range bound market with a market that is breaking down, it is time to take a look at what lies ahead over the next couple of weeks. I will, of course, have a detailed review in my weekly chart segment to be released on Monday, due to the holiday. In the meantime, let us comb over the Dow with an eye on next week as an important cycle turn date. This comes from my own cycle analysis. It's not based on any Gann, Fibonacci, Elliot Wave or the various other types of cyclical/price studies. It should be noted that price analysis is always subjective in nature. There are no absolutes. What has worked and taken on the utmost importance over the past several months or years could fall flat on its face in the years to come. I believe that what separates the professional from the amateur is knowing when to use what. It is identical to a battle hardened veteran of war as compared to the untested, unaware soldier. That battle tested veteran knows within a split second what information matters and what tools to use as a result of what becomes natural reaction resulting from repetition. The untested amateur meticulously studies the situation, relying on learned book knowledge, as opposed to essential experience that has come from real battle. At this point in time in the market, the cycle that takes place next week means more than the trajectory points that are containing the Dow. click chart to...
IS THIS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BULLISH TELL OF ALL?
There are millions of ways to gain tells from the market. Some are more illusory than based on fact. Others are no better than a coin flip. And then there are those methods that simply have too dignified a standing to be overlooked under any circumstance. One of the more dignified ways of reading the market from across the table is to look at important averages that the core averages (S&P 500 as an example) like to emulate. I mentioned the SOX a couple weeks back alerting the astute observer to the fact that the market needed more time to consolidate. A good tell. I have another tell to present tonight. This is one I have mentioned countless times in my weekly chart review. This time, there seems to be more urgency involved than with the SOX. Meaning that this do nothing market that we have been napping over the past couple of weeks is close to snapping out of its funk. By the end of next week the direction should be clear. I present to you the CRB: click chart to...
5 CHARTS THAT WILL KEEP YOU IN PEACE AND NOT IN PIECES DURING THE WEEK AHEAD
click chart to enlarge