5 CHARTS THAT WILL HAVE YOU POUNDING YOUR CHEST WITH LUCIDITY IN THE WEEK AHEAD
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5 CHARTS THAT WILL CREATE BENEVOLENCE AMONG INVESTORS DURING THE WEEK AHEAD
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MURDER SHE WROTE STARRING AAPL
There is an entire generation of cell phone and internet driven youth that has come of age watching the lurid filth that modern day television provides. Gone are the days of quality programming like Murder She Wrote starring Angela Lansbury. I have never watched a single episode of this show, as I preferred shows like Silver Spoons and reruns of CHIPs growing up in the 80s. However, flipping through all 12 channels of cable television, seeing Angela Lansbury sitting at her dimly lit desk, fingers clicking away on a typewriter, was an unavoidable and at the same time comforting consequence of my youth. I could wrap in a cool analogy at this point to firmly implant AAPL in some way, shape or form into either Angela Lansbury or the show she starred in. However, I will spare you that injustice. I simply liked the title and felt like typing a paragraph about 80s television programming. Now onto AAPL. If you will recall on January 23rd, I posted this chart outlining a target I had in mind for AAPL over the short to intermediate term, as well as the long-term. The price of AAPL was 514 at the close of the 23rd. However, I put this chart together after earnings had already been announced, with the stock trading somewhere around 470-480 afterhours. Here is a look at the chart posted on January 23rd, showing a short to intermediate term price target for AAPL of 400-420: It does seem that the lower end of that target (based on red trajectory) is in play. In fact, the trajectory currently sits at 390, which seems like a perfectly reasonable downside target. Breaking another round number, after plunging through 500 just a little over a month ago, will set up psychologically depressive havoc in the stock that may just be the proper formula for the process of bottoming to commence. Now notice, I did say the PROCESS of bottoming. And it will be process. In either case, whatever bounce we get starting in the next week or so will likely dissipate by mid-May. The bottom line is that the bearish side of the bet on AAPL is getting close to running its course. Downside from here is roughly 30 points give or take 10 either way. Upside over the next couple of months is 460, perhaps 480. Here is the technical look as of the close...
4 CHARTS THAT ARE CAUSE TO KEEP DISTANCE FROM THE MARKETS, IF NOTHING ELSE
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THE TWO CHARTS OF THE S&P 500 THAT BULLS WANT TO RUN AWAY FROM
Unfortunately, it is impossible to run away from indisputable truth. That truth, in the markets, comes in the form of price. Price is the ultimate truth teller in this circus of lies. There is no clearer form of communication with investors. The great dilemma is that investors don't feel the need to learn the language of price. Instead choosing to bury themselves in data that is seemingly more intellectual and forthcoming than price, but fails to produce results. One can pontificate with overly-intellectualized jargon. It surely carries well at cocktail parties, as well as industry events. If you do it well enough it may lead to a book deal or a spot in the rotation at CNBC. This is, however, an industry that is bottom line based. None of us are here, as far as I know, to engage in pro-bono debate simply for the sake of debate. It is my hope that the overly-intellectualized jargon that is so commonplace on Wall Street actually serves as a means to an end. That end should be profit. It is the only reason any of us do this. That seems to get lost in the vast clouds of noise that overwhelms so many investors that can never get past...the noise. Below you will find two charts. The first chart is going to demonstrate what I call a recognition. The second chart is going to demonstrate what that recognition means for the market both in terms of upside and downside going forward. All truth. No jargon. With the sole purpose of enhancing portfolio performance. click chart to...
CRUDE OIL: A TIGHT SPOT WITH POTENTIALLY VOLATILE CONSEQUENCES
A bit of history first: On November 25th, with crude sitting around $88, I posted a bit of analysis titled "Crude Oil Warming Jets For A Run Into Triple Digits." The basis of the analysis was that crude would again be attracted to its overhead trajectory after finding support at its lower trajectory point. On February 3rd, after crude oil touched the upside trajectory point almost precisely, I posted an updated chart with a price target for crude at $90 over the next couple of months. While crude oil has been relatively easy to predict based on its transparency in intention, expressed through adherence to its trajectory points, that trend may now be in the process of changing. The trajectory points that have dictated the path of crude for some years now are beginning to pinch. With that pinching action comes the demand that crude oil remains tame if it wants to continue adherence to these tested indicators of price. Unfortunately, crude oil and tame do not typically do well together under most circumstances. Here is an updated analysis. Below you will find the weekly chart of crude showing the long-term influence of both trajectory points I have been referencing. Next is the daily chart with a shorter-term look. click chart to...
A KING-KONG CONVERGENCE OF RESISTANCE
King Kong is not a reference I make often or lightly. Therefore, it may be worth it to pay attention to this posting closely, as it could end up being what makes the difference between an investment portfolio that is glorious or heinous in the months ahead. As you all know, I participate in a form of technical analysis that only takes into account three factors: 1. Price - expansion and contraction of price ranges 2. Volume - expansion and contraction of volume ranges 3. Trajectory Points (more popularly known as trend lines, which I don't think is an appropriate label) - how price and volume reacts to trajectory points To put it in a more illustrative, vivid frame of a mind, think of price and volume as a suspected criminal. The trajectory point is the lie detector. How price and volume react to this lie detector tells the investigator (investor) all that he or she needs to know about the intentions of the stock, index, commodity or currency. There is a convergence taking place among the various leading indices with respect to generational (long-term) trajectory points that is fairly rare in nature. Of more concern is the fact that convergences between price and respective trajectory point is occurring as sentiment, according to various measures, is extremely comfortable with the current bullish landscape. When sentiment picks up a bullish head of steam, as it has over the past couple of months, paired with historically important levels of resistance that are being met across multiple important averages, the outcome is fairly predictable in nature. You can expect one of two outcomes to take place over the intermediate term: 1. A frustrating, sideways range that creates resentment and loathing among investors OR 2. A bearish trend that seeks to re-calibrate the bullish mindset through devastation of wealth In either case, the goal is the same: To create a dislocation in market psychology that yields the ammunition necessary to take on the convergence of technical resistance points we are currently facing. Very simply put, that ammunition doesn't exist currently. It never does when you have a majority of the shorts that are going to be squeezed out of the market and a majority of the investors that are willing to put money into stocks already well allocated. That is exactly where we are now. Investors are essentially facing a steel reinforced, 12 feet thick wall, armed only with toothbrushes and toilet paper. Here are the four key indices that are right up on King-Kong levels of resistance: click chart to...
3 CHARTS THAT HAVE ULTIMATUM WRITTEN ALL OVER THEM FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
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