Just released the 488th Edition of Turning Points. A 17 page note with a primary focus on crypto as this constitutes our largest current long exposure.
We also covered a new earnings play that we will be initiating on the open Monday morning.
However, a good deal of attention was focused on where the market averages are choosing to camp out as we head into Q3 earnings and elections.
Specifically, check out the NDX.
February, March, April, part of May, some of June, part of July, some of August, half of September and all of October have been spent around the same trajectory.
Throughout all of these time periods, we have had what seemed in the moment to be potentially explosive events that would have the markets making a decisive move to once and for all slay the proverbial dragon.
However, throughout the entirety of 2024, the market has refused. It is sticking to a comfortable path forward, which isn't necessarily always the most productive path forward.
The market needs to establish a new trajectory forward on the upside fairly quickly or time will be up.
In establishing a new trajectory forward, whatever coming correction ensues will cover ground that won't be terribly damaging. However, sticking to the same key red trajectory, once a correction comes, can lead to losses that will prove difficult to stomach for most.
Additionally, sticking to the same key red trajectory into mid-November/December increases the possibility that whatever breakout is seen above this technical point will be subject to retracement.
The bottomline: The NDX needs to starts outperforming. The SPX being up more than the NDX in 2024 is a point of weakness for the market that remains exploitable.
We are currently long China (have been since April), biotech, crypto, small-caps, while being short growth.
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