The Splits
In this weekend's edition of Turning Points, the case was made for interest rates being offsides as, among other things, locked capital expecting a dire outcome to the Israel/Iran conflict has obscured the rate picture. While certain sectors will benefit from rates coming down, there has been a tendency for risk assets to decline alongside rates in recent months as investors seem to have moved past inflation risk and are now focused on recession risk. In other words, the threat of a soft landing turning into a hard landing is the primary concern. With that said, those concerns have the potential to be magnified during the weeks ahead as earnings guidance will be erratic and economic data will turn from inflation focused with CPI/PPI out of the way, to economic activity. A mixed picture, at best, emerges under even the best circumstances. Rates decline, rate sensitive sectors benefit, most everything else suffers. The market does the splits. The rotation trade is alive and well. Adjust accordingly. Zenolytics Turning Points is nearly 500 editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our...
Something Happened On The Road To Valhalla
Perhaps it is of little coincidence that the MOVE Index, a measure of bond market volatility, has decided to select this specific time period as a breakout point following a near 18 month downtrend. What this chart represents is essentially a magnifying glass placed by the market right on top of the Fed, investigating the intricate details of the recent policy error that was slashing rates by 50 basis points. Equally significant, the 18-month breakout in bond market volatility signals a lack of confidence in the Fed's future monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, what this range expansion to the upside in bond market volatility represents is a demand by the market for measures to insure that long term rates remain in line with the overall objective of the Fed for monetary policy to be less restrictive overall. While the recent massive spike in rates is short-term restrictive, it also intermediate to long-term accommodative in that it will force the Fed to act in a more creative manner, so to speak, with respect to future monetary policy decisions. Being long assets that will benefit from creative monetary policy efforts, both domestic and foreign, is likely a prudent investment. At the same time, being short assets that will find a higher rate environment disturbing, in case of a bond market gone mad, is equally prudent. Forest meet tree. Zenolytics Turning Points is nearly 500 editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability...