- Numerous stats about the lack of broad market participation are making their rounds. What this tells us more than anything else is that making money in this market remains hard. It also tells us that investors continue to give the cold shoulder to everything but a handful of momentum driven names. What this data DOES NOT tell you is that a market collapse is imminent.
- Doing less in a bull market works. Thinking less works even better. There are a million and one supposedly bearish data points that will come across your screen daily for the next couple of years. You can then point your finger and say, "see, there is the market top, we can't go up much more with this happening." Markets will keep climbing that wall of worry. Do not be part of the wall.
- Crypto market caps, especially in the alternative space, look like they are about soar. The only requirement? Patience. Pick a few names that have potential and ignore the price fluctuations. Given the overall volatility, timing moves in crypto is for the birds. You want to take positions at the beginning of an up cycle and sell sometime during the middle of the cycle.
- What will catch most investors off guard about the coming crypto cycle is that it will be higher for longer, to borrow a term from Fed heads. Meaning that in this go round crypto will move more gradually than it has in previous cycles, with the bull trend moving well in 2025, possibly into 2026 before maturing.
- The reason markets refuse to go down is because they are front running the Fed being behind the curve on their sub 2% inflationary target already being met. The CPI next week will cement this. If you are looking for a top, look towards the latter half of this month sometime after NVDA's earnings.
- Given the nature of the run we have had, markets continue to consolidate wonderfully, with what looks like the next leg up being imminent.
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