In this weekend's 373rd edition of Turning Points we have a 13 page note discussing how short-term uncertainty is set to turn into absolute clarity for the remainder of 2023.
What follows is a brief preview from this weekend's note:
We find ourselves, once again, in one of those spots where our next steps will be abundantly clear due to the nature of how, when and where the markets are consolidating.
However, until we observe how the current situation develops, jumping to premature conclusions about the future direction of the markets will be a sub-optimal use of capital, with what are likely disappointing results.
The current market has the look and feel of one that would be content to chop around for the next week or two, at least.
In that situation, we want to be buying the dips, in a handful of reliable squeeze candidates in order to play the upside.
Over the intermediate term, past the middle of September into the beginning of Q4, the pressing desire of portfolio managers to make up for performance lag during 2023 to date will certainly be a catalyst for renewed upside momentum in the markets.
What will also be a catalyst is the Fed pausing at the September meeting, which is currently looking like a high probability bet according to Fed Fund futures.
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