Here Is Where We Stand After Today’s Decline
Disbelief in this rally is running rampant. That disbelief, however, does not preclude the market from putting in days like today. We took off our leverage for the first time in quite awhile on the open, suspecting that this week would be a volatile one in both directions. That volatility gives rise to opportunity, which is why a cash position was necessary to capitalize on the events to come. The buy zone (highlighted in yellow below) should arrive by Wednesday, if the market decides to be so gracious as to afford investors the opportunity for another dip before heading up to 4200 on the S&P and 13000 on the NDX. Far too many traders are looking for a retest of the now infamous downtrend line from the 2022 highs. This makes the signal far less relevant than it would be otherwise. In fact, if the NDX does test 11450 this week then the bulls have a real problem on their hands going forward. I'll detail this further if it does occur, but for the time being it doesn't necessarily warrant discussion as it's a low probability scenario this week. At maximum, the downside from today is to the 11550-11750 level. This is your buy zone for the week. The more shallow the pullback from these levels, the higher the probability of catapult type action back up to 13000 within the next two weeks. A move to 11750, followed by a quick rebound back above 12000 would be ideal for the 13000 scenario to come to fruition into the middle of February. Watch your levels. More importantly, watch how the market treats these levels over the next few days as a signal for just how great the momentum on the upside will be in the days and weeks ahead. Goodnight. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein...
Weekly Note Preview: Why We Are Reducing Exposure After Being Nearly 200% Long For Much Of January
In this weekend's 322nd edition Turning Points we have a 12 page note detailing the reasons why we are reducing exposure after being nearly 200% long for much of January. MARKET UPDATE Given that we have both a big Fed week and a big earnings weeks, most anything I say here today will be largely irrelevant within a few days depending on how events shake out. Going into the events of this week, we are at a technical crossroad for the market where any further acceleration up can result in significant upside momentum developing for some weeks, blowing out all kinds of resistance areas. Our dilemma, of course, is that we are beholden to the events of this week to determine whether that becomes a reality or we see further delays along the path towards SPX 4200-4300, with an eventual destination of 4500 during Q1. What is noticeable is that investors are beginning to succumb to the emotional challenge of being sidelined while some terrific gains are taking place. These are the top gainers from my watchlist. It's rare you get so many equity names within a few weeks that are up so significantly. Fortunately, we have held or currently hold a handful of these. Irrespective of deeply ingrained bearish psychosis, remaining in cash while these types of gains are taking place is a difficult proposition for most. We are beginning to witness emotional upheaval expressed through price with increasing frequency, especially this past week. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which...
There Is A Change In The Air
I present you the ratio of Bitcoin to long-term yields: Risk went off at the flip of the calendar from 2021 to 2022 when yields signaled a choking off of liquidity relative to Bitcoin. As we recently flipped the calendar again, from 2022 to 2023, we get another signal. This time telling us that liquidity is returning to the financial markets as Bitcoin is rising relative to yields, breaking out of the downtrend from the 2021 high. Risk assets want to breathe. Targeting SPX 4200 and Bitcoin 29000 in the short-term. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in, the transmission thereof to the user. With respect to information regarding financial performance, nothing on this website should be interpreted as a statement or implication that past results are an indication of future...
The Silver Lining After Today’s Drop
Investors are frustrated, irrespective of their affiliations (bull or bear). And here is why it has become so frustrating for nearly everyone. This is technically driven slop. The technical nature of the market is on full display presently. "The lines" in this chart haven't moved to fit the market. The markets have moved to fit the lines. In other words, we are basically pinballing between important technical points until the market figures things out. The question everyone should be asking at this point is WHAT? What exactly is driving the market to become a technical zombie while it figures things out. Yields are falling. The USD uptrend has fully reversed. Market averages globally are doing relatively well, with some even hitting new all-time highs in recent weeks. The velocity of rate hikes is declining. The markets shouldn't be playing technical pinball right now. The only silver lining in all of this is that we can gather, with a great deal of confidence, is that once a break above the resistance areas that have been plaguing this market for many months takes place, a certain momentum should develop, at least for a time. Judging that momentum will be key to figuring out what takes place next. 4100-4200 on the SPX remains critical. 12000-12750 on the NDX also remains critical. Goodnight. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or...
Weekly Note Preview: Speed Is Of The Essence
Below is an excerpt from the 320th edition of Zenolytics Turning Points. This past week was right up there with our performance coming out of the March 2020 lows as well as some of the other major turning points over the past few years. Whereas during those turns we largely held onto positions, favoring a multi-month swing approach to trading, in the current climate it's critical to capture some of our profits until we get more technical clarity. Of course, we are still heavily long by any measure after taking off *** and ****. For that reason, I want to see technical clarity develop in the next couple of weeks, otherwise there will be further scaling back to around 100% long in the equity portfolio. What do I mean by technical clarity? You will see three separate highlights in the chart of the SPX above. The first green arrow from June of 2022 was when we fell into what I call no man's land. Ideally, the market would have been able to sustain the bottom end of the red band at around 3900. However, given the liquidity pressures brought on by the Fed, the market wanted a deeper reset tagging the enormous wall of support at the October lows, marked by the CPI reversal on October 13th. The full 12 page report is available to clients by visiting https://www.zenolytics.com/premium/ Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services,...