In this weekend's 310th edition of Turning Points we have 13 pages focused primarily on the timing of 3 events that create a 5-6 month window for a significant rally in the markets directly ahead.
What follows is an excerpt from page of 3 this weekend's note:
At the very same time, when QE kicked into overdrive in March 2020, I explicitly stated numerous times that the volatility we would experience in the markets from that point on would be unlike anything we have ever experienced. There is no historical context for a market rife with liquidity in a debt based economy facing inflationary pressures while central bankers realize their very existence is at stake if they can't get the situation under control quickly.
Unprecedented situations create unprecedented outcomes.
Increasingly, my thinking on timing this move has moved to a timeline involving the following factors:
1. When the Fed will be done raising rates
2. When a recession will become official
3. When the introduction of CBDCs (central bank digital currency) will take place
All three of these factors share the same common trait: They are all predicated on economic weakness.
The Fed will be done raising rates when the economy weakens to the point where they can no longer justify the rate hikes.
A recession becomes official once economic factors make it clear that we are in a period of declining growth.
CBDCs can only be introduced and eventually embraced as a result of absolute necessity in the form of universal basic income during a period of economic distress, where the jobless rate is increasing dramatically and consumers have no other option to maintain their livelihood.
Let's look at the estimated timing for each of these events, beginning with CBDCs....
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