Weekly Note Preview: The Ingredients Necessary For A Real Market Bottom & A Roadmap To Take Advantage Of A Short-Term Opportunity During The Week Ahead
In this weekend's 301st edition of Turning Points we look at the necessary ingredients for a real market bottom and plot out how to take advantage of short-term swings in the market during the week ahead. We moved back to cash on the equity side of our portfolios after taking advantage of what was a predictable setup to get short after the Fed meeting. What was particularly striking about the post-Fed move was that it became obvious as we closed out the week that investors were actually waiting for the Fed to play savior, holding off on selling decisions until after the FOMC meeting. Once it became obvious that this Fed meeting would fail to produce a positive post-Fed result, as most investors expected, those same investors became trapped in a rapidly declining market that wanted to test its June lows with true expediency. While the selling created a good deal of panic to close out the week, it didn't seem like the type of washout necessary to put in a sustainable low from which the market can mount a rally back over 4000 on the SPX. This leaves the market with two options from here in order to create the type of base necessary from which the market can mount a real rally... To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from...
Weekly Note Preview: After A Brief Hibernation In Cash, An Edge Has Emerged
In this weekend's 296th edition of Turning Points we go over 12 charts pointing to a clear edge for traders in the week ahead. After managing to avoid one of the worst weeks for the market in 2022 by sitting in cash, the question naturally arises if risk/reward has become advantageous enough to deploy some funds during the week ahead? Following Tuesday's CPI and the immediate massive selloff that followed, the bearish camp had everything needed at their disposal to make a statement, laying waste to the 3900 level for the month of September. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in, the transmission thereof to the user. With respect to information regarding financial performance, nothing on this website should be interpreted as a statement or implication that past results are an indication of future...
Investors Are Dealing With A Whole New Set Of Variables
The August high in the S&P should have never occurred. The market had all the momentum necessary to move up beyond some relatively trivial resistance levels, making its move to 4500ish. The fact that it did occur, slicing its way through every conceivable support level and marker on its way down to 3900 in a relatively short amount of time was the first indication that something wasn't right. Now we are beginning to catch glimpses of what the problem might be. Inflation isn't where any of us would like it, least of which the Fed. A 100 basis point hike is on the table for next week after today's CPI. Perhaps more jarringly, there is chatter now that a 4% target Fed Funds rate might not be enough. Let me say that again...a 4% Fed Funds rate isn't enough, meaning the target rate may end up being much higher. Further meaning that we don't know when this ends. And this is why we are in the situation we find ourselves in today more than anything else. Markets hate not knowing. As of today, there is a whole lot more that we don't know about the Fed, interest rate and inflation moving forward than a week, a month or even two months ago. You can see how well the market cleared resistance during August only to fail miserably into September. Now we have our wheels spinning in the mud, with the ultimate threat of running out of gas and seeing the markets make another leg lower over the next few weeks. This is a sloppy area. It's an area where excessive risk makes no sense, as there is a possibility for some real downside given the time of year and general environment we find ourselves in. We remain in cash. Looking to buy lower...perhaps significantly so. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital...