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A preview of this weekend's 15 page note follows:
A number of thoughts currently being regarded as fact by investors are set to be tested by the market in the weeks and months ahead:
1. This is a bull market
2. QE works
3. Technology is a safe haven in a virus economy
4. Rotation to real economy names is just beginning
5. Downside in the market is limited
6. A year end rally must occur
7. Virus cases do not matter
8. Political division of historic proportions is manageable
These are all psychological foundations of the current move up in the markets. This foundation of popular thought serves as a means of seemingly mitigating risk. However, as popular perception comes to be regarded as absolute fact, the very stability of the foundation the market is built on begins to slowly crumble, until risk shows up, often times suddenly and with a significant degree of violence.
The potential for a turn down at any point from here into the end of the year can be especially violent because so few are prepared for it. The idea of a significant year end decline is such a foreboding topic that most on Wall Street will not even consider it.
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