The US Dollar has now given up nearly the entirety of its post-election gains. An economic divergence suggesting that the post-election confidence in economic policy is waning.
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In the meantime, yields have once again taken the road less traveled (or the road driven to death dependent on how you look at it), threatening to once again move into the 1% range, which is one of the biggest macro surprises as we move towards the halfway point of 2017. A move below the 2% support area seems to be imminent.
Transports refuse to be a participant in the celebration of U.S. economic vitality, as they are lagging in a worrying fashion, with future prospects of a move below 8,000.
And financials, while not looking as ominous as Dow Transports, are putting in a classic head and shoulders pattern with increasing distribution taking place on the XLF as the right shoulder forms. This is very simply a confirmation of the pattern. Individual blue chip financials are further confirming the pattern in the XLF as they look at be susceptible to weakness going forward.
Long-term view of the Nasdaq 100 here. The trajectory going back to the 1990 low has marked support, resistance and acceleration of trends in the past. I suspect that given the reluctance of the NDX to clear above the line in a hurry, via a substantial acceleration, that the trajectory will act as a force of gravity, pulling the average below the trajectory over the next few months. A move below 5,000 on the NDX wouldn't be unusual in the least bit. In fact, it should be expected.
The SOX faces a similar issue. It is now below its trajectory, with the trajectory acting as a point of resistance. This indicates an early change in trend for what is an extremely important leading indicator for tech.
