Of the literally thousands of data points available to investors in order to interpret the language of the markets, at present, bond yields may be the most clear.
Following the November election of Trump, bond yields jumped higher in anticipation of fiscal stimulus that was the stuff of FDR's dreams. Infrastructure, jobs, manufacturing, growth...it was all coming together in a potpourri of harmonic, capitalistic opportunity that could only result in higher rates.
However, somewhere in between election day and the present, the markets realized that while the president is on one page, the rest of the governing body may be on an entirely other. Never mind the fact that politicians are still unsure of the president's message, at this point. Never mind that Republicans are recently suspicious that the center of influence within his administration may be ultra-liberal New York Democrats. Never mind that policy seems to shift on a whim. The entirety of Congress is unsure what they are dealing with, resulting in our current circumstance.
The fact that bond yields are now deciding to fall in the face of the most dynamic fiscal stimulus package since the Great Depression is a resounding no-confidence vote against the current administration. Bond yields, after all, are coming up from historically ultra-low levels that should easily be able to support higher rates if the president's message rang true to the ears of the market. One must surmise then that either the market is deaf, dumb or disenchanted by what has been presented up to this point.
Bonds yields aren't supposed to falling at this stage of the Trump presidency. The fact that they are is cause for the perking of ears and the sniffing of the surroundings for investors. Stay woke.
