The last time I posted any kind of chart here was on October 30th, in a posting titled," An Unorthodox Long-Term Indicator Is About To Scream Buy."
The general premise, in a nutshell, was that the market was about to embark on a 20% rally over the next 12 months with very little chance for a drawdown from that point. This was at SPX 2100. Now that the SPX is closing in on 2400, it's time for an update to see exactly where we should see an intermediate term top that will interrupt the current sense of nirvana.
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Given the current trajectory of this run, it is not unreasonable to expect 2500-2550 on the S&P 500 by June or July. Depending on how the market responds to this important trajectory point will determine what happens from that point forward.
There remains little reason to bring in long exposure presently, other than obtrusive contrarian indicators and valuation markers that are inherently prone to range expansions during secular bull markets.
