- A pretty scathing article about Dan Loeb published in the December issue of Vanity Fair. I knew Dan Loeb before he was Dan Loeb, instead referring to himself as Mr. Pink. Mr. Pink was active on the Silicon Investor message boards in the 90s, having a good sized following among investors. Even back then, he was as abrasive as anybody you would ever come across.
Message boards in the 90s were like the Twitter of today. In fact, I often think of Twitter as the modern version of the message board. The Dan Loeb of the 90s was a talented individual. He broke down the case for investing on both the long side and the short side of companies in a well thought out manner. His analysis was typically accurate. You could immediately tell that he got a certain joy out of shorting small-cap names that had a questionable management team or operation in place. He did go after incompetent and in some cases, criminal management teams. He did have help in discovery, however.
There were others that participated in the same game of overthrowing supposedly corrupt CEOs. Most notably, Anthony Elgindy aka Anthony@Pacific on Silicon Investor. Mr. Pink and Anthony@Pacific did have a fairly healthy online relationship before Mr. Elgindy was convicted and sentenced to many years in prison for a bunch of financial related crimes. He was recently released, I believe.
It seems that with all the enemies Dan Loeb has made over the years, we may be in the process of witnessing the good old American sport of “bring you up just to tear you down,” with this Vanity Fair article kicking off the parade.
Pretty sad if this is the intention, as I think whatever success he has achieved he does deserve, regardless of whether or not you agree with his “pull no punches” investment methodology.
- If you are a believer in the FB/YHOO correlation study (I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t be at this point given how accurate it has been in calling FB from the middle of last year), then this is for you. According to that study, Q4 for FB should be flat. I would say a range between 45-55, which is what the stock has been carving out here recently. According to the study, FB should begin moving up again in Q1 2014, headed for close to $100 before the end of 2014.
- If you are a believer in October ending badly, then I have something for you too. Today was bearish anyway you look at it. The action in the Russell was especially atrocious. The action in the S&P wasn’t much better. The selling should continue into the first week of November. I think that will be the extent of it, as I expect November to be a highly bullish month. I’ll have more details in the weekly review.
- How good was this chart, by the way? Pretty close to being pinpoint. It didn’t help me however, as I nailed the month of October but the stocks in the portfolios didn’t care. I haven’t participated. Frustrating to know the markets hand but not be rewarded for it.
- From what I observe, I think that less than 5% of the trading/investing population realize the potential of this current bull run. That is what you want. Bull runs of this magnitude rely on grey areas of analysis that are difficult for people to tap into UNTIL those grey areas become accepted as black and white. That is what creates peaks in secular bull markets similar to what we saw in 2000.
Instead it seems that investors are focused on finding a peak to this market. It is an obsession that I see investors drooling over daily. Further, the path of least resistance is still in the froggy category. Meaning that investors are looking to jump at the first sign of financial market discord.
Listen closely to this part: I was very profitable trading the 90s. My holding period back then was measured in weeks, not months and years as it is now. After the froth from the markets and minds of investors had cleared in the 2000s, I had a chance to look back at the 90s and realize how much better off I would have been by performing better research paired with a longer-term strategy of riding winners.
I think we are facing something similar, if not greater than the 90s over the next several years. I don’t plan on letting those lessons escape me. Not by a long shot.
