EVOL RESEARCH REPORT
Here is the EVOL research report in PDF format for those who missed it yesterday: http://www.t11capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EVOL-Research.pdf This will be the format for all future research that is presented. Questions or comments, feel free to chime...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE: NEW RESEARCH AND POSITION
During the trading day, I tweeted the following: You know the story with TZA. No need to elaborate any further than I have recently regarding this position that was sold at a loss today. There are going to be some changes to Zenpenny, as you noticed by the release of the EVOL research today. My capital management website will be the home of all future research. In fact, all the research from the past is in the process of being moved to this site, as well. I want to separate my research from my blogging, charts etc. The EVOL research is in PDF format and available here. EVOL is a very well managed company with minimal risk and tremendous upside potential over the long-term. All of my investment decisions, with respect to new positions, are based on risk/reward equations that are technically based. Fundamentals come in second, but are a necessary component of initiating any new position. With my grasp of the technical outlook for a company, I feel that I am better able to model the potential risk and reward than the traditional financial modeling that is so prevalent on Wall Street. This is why you won't see me get into detailed forecasts of future earnings and cash flows. It is not an area where I excel, having found that most attempts to use this type of methodology is hit and miss, at best. The price when paired with outstanding fundamentals based on any number of components that I like to look at basically sings to me. That is the best way I can put it. I can clearly see the future price potential when combining both the fundamental and technical aspects of an attractive opportunity. I cannot see anything without combining the two. If I was blind to fundamentals, then it would be like a quarterback attempting to throw a ball down field after getting 3 of his fingers chopped off. If I was blind to technicals, it would be much the same. I think that what I do is pretty unique in the small-cap space with respect to combining these methods of analysis, allowing them to fully complement each other in as many ways as possible. I'm attempting to put together more detailed research as my experience with developing these reports grows. Now that I have my company's image attached directly to the research, it should only serve as impetus to improve even...
7 CHARTS THAT WILL CRADLE YOUR SENSITIVE SIDE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE: HEDGING AIN’T EASY
During the trading day Friday, I tweeted the following: To date, the strategy I am using to hedge the portfolios via TZA during perceived turbulent periods has been the biggest losing trade(s) of 2013. In fact, it has cost the portfolios some 600 basis points of performance. If I was up 35% for the year thus far, I wouldn't sweat 6 percentage points of performance. But when I am up close to 10% for the year, 6 percentage points becomes quite a lot. In fact, looking back at my results, I am hard pressed to find another asset that has cost the portfolios 600 basis points of performance. It is a testament to how well I control position size in losing investments. I rarely, if ever, average down, instead choosing to lighten the load if a stock doesn't perform as I suspect it should. This causes losing momentum to be dulled down in the individual investments that I make. The question I must ask myself at this moment is whether utilizing TZA in the portfolios is actually increasing the risk profile given my already stringent methodology of controlling position risk? The TZA hedge is a play against market risk when the portfolios I manage may not play into general market risk at all due to the fact that the positions run separate from the general market. These aren't stocks like AMZN and CSCO that run with the Nasdaq and S&P. They are companies with market caps below $300 million typically that are thinly traded, having a mind of their own. I'm simply thinking out loud here in an attempt to refine my methodology further. The work never stops. Thanks for...
PORTFOLIO UPDATE: YOU NEVER GO BROKE…
Taking profits. Or so they claim. In the case of IWSY, a 185% profit from inception paired with a stretched stock price made it time to trim 25% more from the position. If you'll recall, I trimmed 33% off last week. During the trading day, I tweeted the following: I mentioned on Twitter that it looked like A top had formed on IWSY not THE top. A high volume reversal, such as what was experienced today, takes some effort for a stock to overcome. With the absence of any fundamental news that turns the stock nuclear, it should take IWSY, at least, a couple of weeks to overcome today's highs. Just some portfolio maintenance. Nothing more. Happy...