A COMPLETELY IRRATIONAL (OR IS IT?) LOOK AT THE DOWNSIDE IN AAPL LONG-TERM
As I sit here tonight over a bowl of frozen yogurt pondering an investment world where AAPL is devoid of any role other than frustrating investors through under-performance, I can't help but wonder exactly how bad this will get before it gets better?
The answer doesn't lie in the fundamentals of AAPL. Truth be told, those who have relied on the various ratios of value to gauge the stock have been struck with a plague of epic failure. Fundamental valuation has been quoted the entire way down from the highs in a HD quality display of the failings of fundamentals in dynamic situations where overexposure to an asset causes emotion led price movement.
The market owes none of those who step onto its playing field a single sliver of rationality. Fundamental ratios of value assume that it does. That is exactly why fundamentals should be used as a complimentary tool and not an absolute measure of whether to buy or sell. This fact seems to be forgotten far too often. A chronic mental disease of the investor class.
The CORRECT study of price offers the most impressive results for the fluidity that AAPL brings with it. Without quoting a single ratio of valuation, let us look at what price says is the future of AAPL on the downside, as well as the possible duration of this bear market in the stock.
The chart below is a QUARTERLY chart of AAPL. That means every bar you see represents an entire quarter of trading. The chart goes all the way back to 1985 so that the trajectories that are guiding AAPL can be accurately interpreted. This look is the best way to ascertain (1) the depth of this pullback (2) the length of time it will take.
Here are the results of that look back:
AAPL
