HOW TAKING THE PATRIOTS IN THE SUPERBOWL REMINDS ME OF GOOG WHEN IT IPO’D: 2012 EDITION
In the same tradition that gave all my intellectually gifted readers the Green Bay Packers as the Superbowl pick last year, I am compelled to pick the New England Patriots as a 3 point favorite for a return of near 100% on capital invested in a matter of a few hours.
The reasons for taking the Patriots are much the same as the reason the Packers were the pick last year. Namely, the public is enamored with NY Giants and the oddsmakers are being kind enough to give them a gift of a 3 point cushion just for participating. The bets are lopsided towards the Giants. The sentiment is one-sided.
Those hotels you see in Vegas weren't built by giving the public gifts on the single most heavily bet event of the year. They were built by offering up illusions to the public that do not exist. Much like the Green Packers being a 3 point favorite to the heavily bet Steelers last year, the Patriots as a 3 point favorite offers up a grand illusion to the multitude of bettors who feel that they are getting a value.
If you haven't read my comparison between GOOG when it IPO'd and the Packers (now it's the Patriots), please do so. The link is here http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=638 The exact same circumstances apply to this game. The only difference is that it is a year later.
